As the New Year approaches, Foresight News will present its annual must-read series in the last week of 2024 to review 2024 and look ahead to 2025. Understanding the past to know the future.
Written by: 1912212.eth, Foresight News
The year 2024 is drawing to a close, leaving behind many significant moments. In the crypto industry, filled with various uncertainties, there are surprises, hopeful aspirations, and astonishing transformations.
Earlier this year, the highly anticipated Bitcoin spot ETF was officially approved. Just when the public thought the Ethereum spot ETF was making slow progress, the SEC's attitude suddenly changed. Subsequently, as the U.S. elections drew closer, the prediction market Polymarket gained significant attention due to its data changes, becoming one of the few breakout crypto applications this year. Binance founder and CEO Changpeng Zhao was also sentenced to three months in prison and was officially released at the end of September.
As the fourth quarter arrives, pro-crypto Trump is expected to be elected as the next U.S. president. Under Musk's plan proposal, the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) was also established, causing the long-silent Dogecoin to dance again. The surge in Dogecoin has led to explosive growth in many memes. Solana has become the king of meme coins, with its total market capitalization briefly surpassing $15 billion. Meanwhile, the current SEC chairman, who has been criticized by the industry, is set to leave office when Trump officially takes office, bringing relief to the crypto industry. Bitcoin has also been steadily rising, finally breaking the $100,000 mark for the first time on December 5.
1. Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs approved - Wall Street's new darling
The highly anticipated Bitcoin spot ETF has been widely awaited in the industry since the end of 2023. On January 10 of this year, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) announced the official approval of the first batch of ETFs (Exchange Traded Funds) with cryptocurrency Bitcoin as part of the underlying assets. These ETFs are set to be publicly traded on January 11, 2024 (Beijing time).
The approved spot Bitcoin ETF issuers include Grayscale, Bitwise, Hashdex, iShares, Valkyrie, Ark 21Shares, Invesco Galaxy, VanEck, WisdomTree, Fidelity, and Franklin, totaling 11 institutions. This decision marks a historic step for the U.S. digital asset ecosystem and suggests that the digital asset market may stand at a new historical starting point.
As of December 9, the total net inflow of Bitcoin has risen to $33.43 billion, with no signs of slowing down.
Behind the constantly breaking historical data is the increasing emergence of Bitcoin as a mainstream asset. The purchasing power of institutional and retail investors has also been unleashed by its spot ETF, laying the groundwork for the rise in Bitcoin prices.
After the approval of the Bitcoin spot ETF, market investors naturally shifted their attention to Ethereum. However, due to the lack of news for a long time, some did not hold much hope. On May 14, Bloomberg senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas stated that he does not expect this ETF to be approved before the end of 2025. Meanwhile, bettors on the on-chain prediction market Polymarket estimated a 14% chance of the SEC approving this ETF before May 31.
The approval of the Ethereum spot ETF came faster than expected. Just ten days later, on May 24, the Ethereum spot ETF officially received approval from the SEC. The SEC approved plans from the New York Stock Exchange, Cboe, and Nasdaq to list spot Ethereum ETFs, including applications from eight firms, such as BlackRock and Fidelity.
Unlike Bitcoin spot ETFs, the launch of Ethereum spot ETFs coincided with a sluggish market, with data showing poor performance and even daily net outflows consistently exceeding net inflows. It wasn't until early November that net inflows significantly surpassed net outflows, leading to a massive influx of market funds.
As of December 9, the total cumulative net inflow of Ethereum spot ETFs has risen to $1.41 billion.
2. Polymarket breaks out - The most accurate polling platform
With the hot market and the excitement around the U.S. elections, Polymarket has successfully positioned itself as the hottest breakout crypto application by betting on events. In June of this year, its trading volume reached $109 million, setting a historical high, with monthly active users reaching 29,200, also a record high.
In the months leading up to the U.S. presidential election in July, August, September, and October, Polymarket's platform trading volume set historical highs each month. Questions about whether Biden would not run and the comparison of Trump's and Harris's chances further propelled the platform's data to new heights. Influential figures like Musk and CNN frequently referenced its data in discussions about the election.
In October this year, Trump's probability of winning exceeded 60%, soaring above 88% on November 6. After the official announcement of the election result, market participants praised the accuracy of its data predictions, noting that 'real money bets often reflect the market's views more accurately.'
Prediction markets tend to be more accurate than polls, media, and expert forecasts. Besides predicting Trump as the election winner, a French whale betting on Trump's victory made a profit of $47.8 million on Polymarket. This 'whale' is a wealthy French individual who previously worked as a trader in several banks and started using his mathematical expertise to analyze U.S. polls this summer, ultimately becoming well-known for this bet.
In November, Polymarket's trading volume reached $2.577 billion, setting a new historical high, with active users reaching 293,705 and new account numbers also hitting a historical high of 339,531.
3. Changpeng Zhao sentenced to four months in prison - The 161 letters of support changed the verdict
Binance founder Changpeng Zhao was officially released from prison on September 29 this year. Since the end of 2023, Zhao has not been allowed to hold any position and made a court appearance in Seattle on November 22. On the same day, Reuters cited sources stating that Binance's fine amounts to $4.368 billion, setting the highest record for fines paid in the crypto industry. Court records show that Binance faces three criminal charges, including conducting unlicensed money transfer operations, conspiracy charges, and violating the International Emergency Economic Powers Act.
As the founder of Binance, Changpeng Zhao was also not able to escape legal sanctions. Zhao pleaded guilty to charges of money laundering and paid a $50 million fine. Subsequently, he was allowed to post bail of $175 million and was briefly permitted to return to the UAE during the bail period. However, as the case progressed, U.S. courts repeatedly overturned previous decisions, prohibiting him from traveling abroad.
In April 2024, U.S. prosecutors formally filed criminal charges against Changpeng Zhao, recommending a 36-month prison sentence. Prosecutors pointed out that Zhao's Binance platform had serious compliance issues, failing to report suspicious transactions related to terrorist organizations and supporting the sale of child sexual abuse materials and receiving ransomware payments. Prosecutors believe these actions seriously violated U.S. anti-money laundering regulations and must be severely punished.
On May 1, Changpeng Zhao's criminal trial was confirmed, and it is evident that the 161 letters of support played a significant role in the verdict, resulting in a sentence of four months imprisonment.
Since Zhao's release from prison, he has stated in interviews that he has dedicated at least half of his time to the digital education platform Giggle Academy, finding the project very interesting and impactful.
4. Trump wins - The first 'crypto' president
Trump's photo of raising his fist after being shot before the election went viral worldwide. Perhaps surviving a near-death experience brings good fortune; on November 6, Trump officially defeated Harris and won the U.S. presidential election. Trump presented himself as pro-crypto during the campaign, making a series of statements such as firing the current SEC chairman and establishing a national Bitcoin reserve.
After winning the election, Trump has been active, nominating five cryptocurrency players as candidates for new government ministers. Additionally, he plans to expand the CFTC's regulatory powers and clarify the responsibilities and authorities between the CFTC and SEC. Currently, the candidate for the new SEC chairman is still being finalized.
For a long time, U.S. regulatory policies have been heavily criticized by the market for their strictness. The CFTC and SEC have taken multiple enforcement actions over the past few years, which have dampened market confidence. Trump's formal inauguration, along with the nominations of new government ministers, has left the market eagerly anticipating.
Bitcoin has been rising steadily since Trump's election, breaking the $100,000 mark for the first time in early December. The new cabinet appointments and expectations of relaxed regulations have also driven a revival in DeFi, with various American native public chains, DeFi, and RWA also rising in tandem.
Bitwise CEO Hunter Horsley stated in early December, 'In the past 30 days, Coinbase's market capitalization has increased by approximately $30 billion, and XRP's market capitalization has increased by approximately $100 billion. The shift from regulatory resistance to regulatory favor in the U.S. is one of the largest and most important structural catalysts seen in the crypto space. Its impact has just begun.'
5. The Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) is established - A victory for Dogecoin
Musk's plan for the Department of Government Efficiency had been brewing long before Trump was elected. This initiative, co-launched by him and former President Donald Trump, aims to conduct a comprehensive financial audit of the federal government and propose suggestions for reducing waste, fraud, and unnecessary spending.
In September this year, Trump officially announced during a speech at the New York Economic Club that if elected president, he would create the Department of Government Efficiency in collaboration with Musk. Therefore, this document is just a formal announcement of what was already expected.
Trump has high expectations for it, stating: It could become the 'Manhattan Project' of our time. Republican politicians have long dreamed of the goals of 'DOGE.' To drive this radical transformation, the Department of Government Efficiency will provide advice and guidance from outside the government and work with the White House and the Office of Management and Budget to promote large-scale structural reforms, creating an unprecedented entrepreneurial government.
The final statement also indicated, 'Their work will be completed no later than July 4, 2026, delivering a smaller, more efficient, and less bureaucratic government, which will be a perfect gift for America on the 250th anniversary of the Declaration of Independence.'
The English abbreviation for the Department of Government Efficiency is D.O.G.E, which is no coincidence. Its inspiration comes from the Dogecoin community, where Musk claimed in a Twitter interaction in August that this name is perfect.
Dogecoin has also risen under the enthusiasm of the Department of Government Efficiency, climbing to nearly $0.48 from September, with an increase of nearly six times.
6. HBO documentary 'Money Electric: The Bitcoin Mystery' released - Who is Satoshi Nakamoto
The HBO documentary 'Money Electric: The Bitcoin Mystery' premiered on October 8. This video reveals who Satoshi Nakamoto really is. Before this, the range of possible identities for Satoshi included Len Sassaman, Nick Szabo, and Adam Back.
The documentary identifies Satoshi Nakamoto as Bitcoin developer Peter Todd, who stated: 'Publicly announcing that an ordinary person is actually extremely wealthy can expose them to threats like robbery and kidnapping. This issue is not only foolish but also dangerous. Satoshi clearly doesn't want to be found, and there's a reason for that; everyone should not help those trying to find Satoshi.'
Although the documentary's identification of Satoshi Nakamoto was denied by Todd himself, it still sparked considerable discussion.
On December 16, after breaking through $106,000, Satoshi Nakamoto became the 16th richest person, with a personal fortune exceeding $100 billion.
7. SEC Chairman Gary Gensler resigns - Dawn is approaching
On November 22, according to a statement released by the SEC, Gary Gensler, whose term was originally set to end in June 2026, will resign early on January 20, 2025.
Since the FTX incident, the SEC has tightened regulations on the crypto industry again, initiating a series of high-profile lawsuits. Gary Gensler believes that most cryptocurrencies are securities and aims to enforce compliance through a series of enforcement actions.
He has repeatedly pointed out in public that cryptocurrencies are rife with fraud, scams, bankruptcies, and money laundering. On the other hand, during his tenure, Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs were successively approved.
Most industry professionals tend to criticize Gary, but after Trump took office, his trusted SEC chairman nominee has received significant market attention. In early December, Trump nominated Paul Atkins as the SEC chairman candidate, but he was unwilling to accept the position. Although Coinbase's CEO commented that Paul is an excellent choice for the SEC, the position remains unfilled.
8. Bitcoin first breaks $100,000 - Setting a new historical record
On December 5, after consolidating above $90,000, Bitcoin finally broke through the $100,000 mark. This is the first time in history that Bitcoin has surpassed $100,000 since its inception in 2009, with its total market capitalization exceeding $2 trillion, making it one of the top seven assets globally. Throughout past bull and bear cycles, Bitcoin has remained resilient, ranking first in the crypto asset market capitalization leaderboard.
As crypto assets spread globally under the continuous momentum of blockchain waves, and as more financial institutions, sovereign countries, and regions recognize their value, the price and market capitalization of Bitcoin are also expanding. Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz commented on its price surpassing $100,000, stating that a global Bitcoin purchasing frenzy is underway, making it one of the first global assets.
Bitcoin spot ETFs continue to achieve record net inflows, and with pro-crypto Trump about to take office, Bitcoin may continue to lead the main trend of the crypto market's upward wave.
9. MicroStrategy is included in the Nasdaq-100 Index - the crypto version of Nvidia
On December 14, Nasdaq (Nasdaq: NDAQ) announced the results of the annual reorganization of the Nasdaq-100 Index® (Nasdaq: NDX®), which will take effect before the market opens on Monday, December 23, 2024. MicroStrategy Incorporated (Nasdaq stock code: MSTR) will be included in the Nasdaq-100 Index.
The Nasdaq-100 Index is a stock index launched by the Nasdaq Stock Market, containing 100 of the largest non-financial companies listed on the Nasdaq. The index reflects the overall market performance of these companies and is one of the important indices that attract global investors. In addition to the aforementioned conditions, there are also requirements regarding market capitalization, stock liquidity, visibility, and company financial profitability to be included in the Nasdaq-100 Index.
Since 2020, MicroStrategy has been treating BTC as its primary reserve asset. With MicroStrategy's aggressive purchases, its stock price has soared due to Bitcoin's strong performance in the new cycle. In January 2023, MSTR's stock price was only $150, while in March 2024, it soared to a peak of $1999.99, with a market capitalization of hundreds of billions of dollars, resulting in a stock price return of over 1000% in just over a year.
As of December 8 this year, data shows that MicroStrategy holds a total of 423,650 Bitcoins (accounting for 2.017% of the total Bitcoin supply), with a total purchase cost of approximately $25.6 billion and an average purchase price of approximately $60,324.
For the crypto industry, the influence of the Nasdaq-100 may also inspire more companies to follow MicroStrategy's example and join the ranks of Bitcoin investors. As more institutional investors enter the cryptocurrency market, the market demand for Bitcoin may further increase, driving up BTC prices.
10. Stablecoin market capitalization reaches a historical high - Mass Adoption
On December 9, the total market capitalization of stablecoins exceeded $200 billion, setting a new historical high. The market capitalization of stablecoins has steadily risen since hitting nearly $186 billion in May 2022 and has been on a steady increase since the beginning of 2024, with funds continuously pouring into the crypto market.
In terms of the crypto industry, stablecoins represented by USDT, USDC, and USDE provide fuel for market price increases. Currently, USDT accounts for nearly 70%, with a market capitalization exceeding $14.057 billion, while USDC has a market capitalization exceeding $4.211 billion. The emerging stablecoin USDE has seen its market capitalization exceed $5.87 billion in just a few months.
Stablecoins provide lower fees, increased competition among payment service providers, and broader accessibility. By reducing transaction costs to nearly zero, stablecoins can help businesses overcome friction caused by existing payment methods. The adoption of stablecoins will begin with businesses most affected by current payment methods, which will disrupt the entire payment industry. Major players such as Visa, Mastercard, and PayPal have all entered the stablecoin payment space.
