What did you see in the market during last Friday's rebound?
Is it fear? No, it's absolute greed.
When the market drops, many people will start buying the dip, which clearly does not align with expectations. A true stage bottom is accompanied by panic selling, and it is obvious that we are not there yet.
In the crypto circle, since you're here, you can't just talk; you have to take action!
In the past 24 hours, a total of 105,678 traders across the network have been liquidated, with a total liquidation amount reaching 288.76 million dollars.
Recently, long positions have been largely liquidated. Even if Bitcoin drops to 85,000, it can only liquidate 1.17 billion dollars; conversely, if Bitcoin rises to 105,000, it can trigger a liquidation of 2.4 billion for shorts.
From despair comes hope; a sharp drop must have a rebound. In the short term, Bitcoin's second retest will focus on the previous low of 92,000. As long as it doesn't break below this, there must be a rebound.
A single chart, but different people see different results; some see the top and risk; while I see the same level and the vast sea of stars; we could be wrong or right, but it doesn't matter. What's important is to get to the table, place bets, and validate judgments with positions.
Bitcoin's pullback from the highest point of 108,353 is seen as a pullback against the blue push wave.
From a larger perspective, looking at Bitcoin alone, it seems to be very strong; the depth of the drop is very limited. This is also the biggest reason for the market's panic. Bitcoin hasn't dropped much, but altcoins have taken a beating. If Bitcoin really goes down, what will happen to the altcoins?
The wave pattern drawn has not changed. If the previous low cannot act as a bottom, then 89,600 will be a strong support. There is no market that only rises without falling, nor is there one that only falls without rising. I don't think it's a good time to open a short position. 'Like a friend of mine' who has been shorting around the 100,000 mark countless times without success. I don't know if they've caught this smooth downtrend. However, at this position, I believe the cost-effectiveness of shorting is not high; just look at the chart.
The previous low support pillar is the bottom. If it cannot hold, go to 89,600 to find support.
Altcoins, I mean all of them; I believe they are all oversold compared to Bitcoin! Yes, that's my clear viewpoint!
Including major mainstream coins like ETH and SOL, they are oversold compared to Bitcoin!
I can't imagine how hot the market would be if there were a rise of the same level; it's too exciting!
I firmly believe that the bullish trend is still ongoing and the main rising wave is about to begin. We will compare it with previous candlestick patterns.
(1) The K-line reference for the market officially starting in September 2020; you can look at the chart yourself!
(2) The first round of major trends after the bear market in September 2023 is back for reference, as shown in the picture!
(3) This round of market similarly bottomed out in September; let's take a look at the chart!
In summary, there are too many coincidences; is this just a similarity? History is worth referencing, therefore I believe this round of adjustment has dropped enough. I expect there will be about 10 more days of adjustment time, during which there will be repeated fluctuations to build a bottom, followed by the start of a large main rising wave.
However, it is worth noting that in recent years there has been a downward trend in daily charts around Christmas, so what about this time? A big drop is unlikely; the focus will be on fluctuations. Just find a suitable position during the fluctuations!
So the recent strategy is:
After the market drops, take on the role of a 'corpse picker'. Yesterday, I didn't see too many large liquidation orders, anticipating another round of decline, buying the dip and then selling during the rebound to earn comfortable profits. Based on experience, large premiums in USDT are usually good opportunities. Generally, when there are no particularly huge negative factors, if Bitcoin drops 20% in a day, it usually rebounds 10% the next day. When mainstream coins drop 30% in a day, they usually recover 10-20% the next day. That's just a bit of experience. How to pick up the 'corpses':
1. The project party has a very strong background, resources, and strength.
2. Is the project side accumulating at the bottom, with a large amount of accumulation at the bottom?
As long as the two logics I mentioned are met, the probability of a rise afterwards is over 99%.
