1. General Trend (Macro Trend):
Long-Term Trend:
Bitcoin is currently in a long-term uptrend, but on the 12-hour timeframe, the short-term trend is turning bearish.
Breaking the uptrend channel (purple line) is an important signal, indicating that selling pressure is increasing.
Price Action Analysis:
After reaching a peak of 106,817.33 USDT, the price creates a lower high pattern, which is a clear bearish signal.
"Bull Trap" is confirmed when the price drops sharply after hitting a peak, eliminating buy orders from late market participants.
2. Important Price Levels (Key Levels):
Based on Fibonacci and support/resistance levels:
Resistance Level:
96,128.48 USDT (Fibonacci Level 0.786): This is an important price level that has been broken. If the price recovers above this level, the downtrend will be invalidated.
98,877.78 USDT (Fibonacci Level 1): This is the strongest resistance level, where sellers may continue to push the price down.
Support Level:
93,970.15 USDT (Fibonacci Level 0.618): Currently acting as the strongest support. However, this level has been broken, and the price may continue to decline.
92,454.19 USDT (Fibonacci Level 0.5): This is the nearest target if the decline continues.
90,938.22 USDT (Fibonacci Level 0.382): If this level cannot hold, the price will approach the low of 86,030.60 USDT.
3. Price Scenario Forecasts:
Bearish Scenario:
The price continues to decline to support levels of 92,454.19 USDT, 90,938.22 USDT, and may go deeper to the old low of 86,030.60 USDT.
This scenario will occur if the price does not break the resistance level of 96,128.48 USDT.
Recovery Scenario (Bullish Reversal):
If the price breaks back above the 96,128.48 USDT level, this is a signal for buyers to return, the next target is the 98,877.78 USDT level.
This scenario will invalidate the current bearish pattern.
4. Reversal Triangle Pattern:
In the small illustration on the chart, the reversal triangle pattern has been activated:
Entry Sell Point: After the price breaks the lower edge of the triangle.
Stop-loss: Set above the nearest peak at 98,877.78 USDT to protect capital.
Take Profit Target:
TP1: 92,454.19 USDT.
TP2: 90,938.22 USDT.
TP3: 86,030.60 USDT.
5. Trading Volume Analysis:
Recent trading volume has gradually decreased as the price reached the peak, indicating weakening buying pressure.
After the breakout, volume increased significantly, confirming the sell signal.
6. Detailed Trading Strategy:
Short Strategy:
Entry Point: When the price breaks the 93,970.15 USDT level (Fibonacci Level 0.618).
Stop-loss: Set at 96,128.48 USDT.
Take Profit: Split the order into 3 targets:
TP1: 92,454.19 USDT (Fibonacci Level 0.5).
TP2: 90,938.22 USDT (Fibonacci Level 0.382).
TP3: 86,030.60 USDT (Old Low).
Long Strategy:
Entry Point: If the price returns and exceeds 96,128.48 USDT with high volume.
Stop-loss: Set below the support level of 93,970.15 USDT.
Take Profit: Split the order into 2 targets:
TP1: 98,877.78 USDT.
TP2: 106,817.33 USDT (Old Peak).
7. Alerts and Risk Management:
Capital Management: Only risk a maximum of 3-5% of capital for each trade.
Follow Market News: Bitcoin may be affected by major news, such as the FED's decisions or legal issues.
Set Price Alerts: Use price tracking tools to receive notifications when the price reaches important levels.
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