Observing the 4-hour BTC chart, the current price is 96781.5, having significantly corrected from the previous high of 108366.8, oscillating in the 96000-98000 range, overall presenting a weak consolidation pattern. The market sentiment is bearish in the short term, but support strength is gradually emerging, with a potential short-term rebound.
1. Moving Average System
MA7 (97632.9): The short-term moving average has started to flatten, indicating weakening bearish strength, and it may stabilize in the short term.
MA30 (100568.9): Price is capped here, and the medium-term trend remains bearish.
MA100 (100442.2): The long-term moving average is close to MA30, indicating that resistance is concentrated in the 100500-101000 area.
2. Candlestick Patterns
Yesterday's long lower shadow indicates significant buying support near 96000, but the rebound strength is limited, indicating insufficient bullish confidence.
Price has not yet broken through the short-term pressure of 97500, and attention is still needed for breakthrough momentum.
3. Technical Indicators
RSI: Around 40, indicating weak market sentiment, but there is some rebound space.
MACD: Green bars shorten, fast and slow lines gradually converge, indicating a decline in bearish momentum.
4. Volume Analysis
Trading volume is sluggish, with a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market. If volume increases later, attention should be paid to the direction of price breakthroughs.
Today's Trading Suggestions
Direction: Short-term bullish, pay attention to rebound strength.
Opening Position: 96500-97000 (Light long positions in support range)
First Take Profit Level: 98000 (Short-term Pressure Level)
Second Take Profit Level: 99000 (Important Resistance Zone)
Stop Loss Level: 96000 (Stop loss if key support level is broken)
Yesterday's Situation: BTC price found support near 96000, but the rebound strength was limited, overall showing a weak consolidation.
Today's Prediction: If the price stabilizes at 97000 and breaks through 97500, it is likely to test 98000 or even 99000 in the short term. However, if it breaks below 96000, it may further decline to 95000 or even 94000.
Support Level Selection: 96000 is the low point of yesterday's shadow line, with certain buying support. If it is broken, bearish pressure will further increase.
Resistance Level Selection: Short-term pressure at 98000 is near MA7, and after a breakthrough, it will further test the 99000 area. There is considerable pressure above 99000, which requires attention to volume matching.
Range Fluctuation Possibility: If today's trading volume remains sluggish, prices may continue to consolidate in the 96000-98000 range.
Upper Resistance Risk: 97500-98000 pressure is considerable, and a breakthrough requires accompanying volume.
Retracement Risk: If it breaks below 96000, market bearish sentiment will intensify.
External Risks: Market news or changes in the macro environment may trigger short-term volatility.
Currently, BTC is in a weak consolidation repair phase. It is recommended to test long positions with light holdings, focusing on the stabilization at 97000 and the breakthrough strength at 97500. Strictly execute take profit and stop loss strategies to avoid unnecessary losses caused by market fluctuations.
