Experience tells us that, in fact, you can see from the golden ratio that once altcoins enter a downtrend from their peak, the decline is generally between 40% and 60%, followed by a second peak or a consolidation period. Of course, this does not include high market cap mainstream coins; the higher the market cap, the more stable it is, and both the increase and decrease should be discounted by about 30%. Therefore, those coins that can be shorted and those that cannot be shorted are well known as one's proficiency increases.

Recently, I have given up on high shorting strategies; I only dare to follow a short position when altcoins truly begin to decline, which can be seen as making back last month's losses with interest. Altcoins are particularly strong during an uptrend, but when they start to fall, even a fool can see that they will decline and participate to take a share. The key is the flexible conversion of daily thinking; now, in the BTC monkey market, one cannot stubbornly hold on to one direction anymore.

Streamlining: Not only should you look at the price, but also at the cycle; at this stage, the importance of the cycle is greater than that of the price.