Hello everyone, I'm the old cat. It's been several days since I shared an article and my personal insights; I've been too busy to update. Thank you for your understanding.
The market is unpredictable, with various messages flying around. It aligns with a bull market pattern; the saying still stands: endure to stand out, and if you can't endure, exit.
The market is entering a historically critical moment. The market adjustment and consolidation are nearing the end stage. The bull market is very brief, and the structural adjustments happen quickly. By the time you realize it, the climax has already occurred. If you enter while still fantasizing about the bull market, you have actually already entered the bear phase.
I personally experienced being stuck in two rounds of the bear market and have now become part of the bear market army. I remember during the great bull market of 2017, from January to February, money was everywhere, and anyone could make a profit. The bear market began in March, during XRP's peak, when the market was crazy. As everyone thought it was a long bull, it slowly entered a declining phase. By the time you realize it, it's already too late, caught in a dilemma, starting a long three-year slow decline.
To be honest, in the previous years, trading or sector concepts weren't as abundant as they are now, and updates weren't this fast. Back then, it was simpler; there weren't so many coins, and driving up the market was relatively easier. You could buy coins and wait for them to rise without the complexity of data research we see now. The time node came to March 2020, when the infamous 3.12 incident in the crypto world caused a market crash, with Bitcoin plummeting nearly 40 points in a single day and other altcoins dropping by 50-100%. Most of them reached a near-zero state. Looking back, it actually started counting from this day as the historical bottom entering the bull market phase.
As we reach June, the development and play of DEFI have brought about profit effects, with leading DEFI projects like AAVE, SNX, COMP, etc., experiencing explosive liquidity staking mining. This continued until around October, igniting the entire market and ending the three-year bear market. The market fully exploded and continued until December, which is roughly around this time when it entered a consolidation and adjustment phase, characterized by fluctuating consolidation and price increases. By mid-January 2021, we had already reached the peak. In February, although the market was still high, it was evident that it was losing strength. After entering early March, with the influence of meetings and March 15th, we had already entered a slow bear mode.
In 2021, this major bull market also entered a bear mode from March to May, starting a prolonged decline that lasted over two years. This phase ended in September 2023, and a brief small bull market began in October. During this time, there were continuous fluctuations and price increases, reaching a peak in March 2024. If you sold everything at that moment, you would have made a profit. After March, a long period of slow decline and consolidation began, compounded by this year's rumors about the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes or cuts. The fluctuations and consolidation during this time have tormented many people to an unbearable state. Over the past six months, I have observed various communities and Telegram groups, and it's a scene of despair, with no one talking or discussing the market. The most common question is whether the bull market is still around, with many doubting their lives and their faith wavering.
As we reached the bottom in August, a turning point appeared when Pog participated in the presidential election, publicly supporting cryptocurrencies and stating that if elected, he would support Bitcoin, etc. The market saw a brief pullback and consolidation, slowly rising without any major fluctuations until November, when competition intensified. At this point, it felt like the market was in a precarious state, with many people also concerned that Pog might lose. Consequently, from January 1st to 4th, a crash mode began, and most people sold off. Although most remained bullish in the long term, the prolonged wait was too much for many, and many fell before dawn. Until the data was announced on November 5th, the market began to clarify, exploding upward and entering a brief frenzy that lasted until December 15th. At that time, I was already considering selling to avoid risk. Based on past experiences, there is usually a sharp decline around Christmas, and as expected, the Chairman of the Federal Reserve publicly stated that he does not support Bitcoin, causing the market to crash, erasing half a year of gains in just three days. This initiated a washing mode, with ongoing fluctuations and a powerless state that left you in a dilemma.
Actually, as I share this, you might want to reflect on the historical trends and notice the astonishing similarities and how well the time nodes are grasped. Although the events during this period differ, the time nodes are worth referencing, showing a high degree of similarity. Based on past experience, bull markets typically occur in January to February, with a slow bear phase starting in March. I certainly hope for a long bull, while some believe the major bull market will only begin in the second half of next year. Regardless of whether it's early or late, securing profits is the safest approach; the best strategy is to first recover your principal when the market rises and let the profits grow.
Alright, let's wrap it up here for today. It's not easy to create and share, and your attention and likes are my biggest motivation. Finally, I wish everyone profits in the last phase of the bull market, returning home fully loaded. I always say, selling at the peak is always profitable; selling on the way up is more valuable than being stuck. Thank you.