Tensions between Canada and the United States have reached a boiling point. Donald Trump has returned to his favorite platform, Twitter, where he has threatened to impose a 25% tariff on Canadian goods and even suggested, ludicrously, that Canada should become the “51st state.”
In response, Canada is preparing to retaliate forcefully. Its response could be devastating to the U.S. economy and destroy the world’s largest trading partnership.
Trudeau takes first strike
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau traveled to Mar-a-Lago in late November to confront Trump face-to-face. In a tense three-hour meeting, he reportedly tried to steer the conversation toward diplomacy and mutual benefit.
But let's be real — convincing Trump to back off on a tariff that he thinks will "fix" immigration and drug smuggling is like trying to stop a freight train with a bicycle.
After the meeting, Trump almost immediately doubled down on his tariff threats and threw gasoline on the fire by floating the idea that Canada could become part of the United States. His exact words? “Maybe Canada should consider becoming the 51st state. They’d love that.”
Predictably, Canadians didn't like that.
Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre responded almost immediately. “Canada will never be the 51st state,” he said at a news conference. “We are a sovereign nation and we will not be bullied.” Ontario Premier Doug Ford said “our independence is non-negotiable.”
The backlash wasn’t limited to political circles. Across Canada, citizens took to social media to mock Trump’s proposal. “We’d rather join Mars than the 51st StateNever,” read one widely shared tweet. Even provinces that often disagree on policy seemed to find common ground in rejecting the idea of statehood.
If Trump thought his statehood comment would pressure Canada into submission, he miscalculated, and he made a big mistake. The idea of becoming a U.S. state is as popular in Canada as pineapple on poutine.
A 2023 survey found that 44% of Canadians already feel uneasy about high immigration levels, fearing it will weaken Canada’s dent. Statehood, with all its political baggage, is a non-starter for most.
However, not everyone is closing the door on closer ties with the United States. Some Canadians see benefits in increased cooperation, especially in areas such as defence and border security.
A handful even argue that a closer alliance with the United States could provide long-term economic stability. But let’s be clear: “close ties” does not mean becoming the 51st state.
Economically, Trump’s tariff proposal is a sledgehammer targeting Canada’s biggest industries. With $3.6 billion worth of goods crossing the border every day, a 25% tariff could ripple through sectors like manufacturing, agriculture and energy.
Canada is the largest foreign supplier of oil and natural gas to the United States, making energy exports one of its strongest bargaining chips.
Officials are reportedly preparing a list of retaliatory measures that could make Trump regret ever tweeting. First on the list: targeted tariffs on American goods.
The plan? Go straight for the economic jugular by focusing on states that rely heavily on Canadian trade. If the tariffs hit hard enough, they could prompt U.S. lawmakers to pressure Trump to back down.
Energy export taxes are also on the table. If Canada taxed its oil and natural gas bound for the United States, energy prices could rise significantly south of the border.