Update analysis #BTC Daily and Monthly
First of all, we remain in the same scenario I mentioned before: I expect a final shakeout in the market. This is important because I am still not convinced that the market has hit its temporary low. That's why I made my first purchase to average positions, but be careful, I haven't gone all in because I don't know exactly where the market will stop.
I work by zones, and the one that matters to me is between 85 and 88, which corresponds to 50% of the monthly candle. This level has several important confluences:
1. Fibonacci 1.27: This zone is at a key extension that generally acts as support in deep retracements.
2. Imbalance (FVG): There is a liquidity void just above 80, which could act as a point of interest for a significant bounce if prices reach there.
3. Resistance turned into support: The levels close to 85 also coincide with previous highs that should now act as support.
That said, my stance remains bullish, but I am patient. My plan is that if the market tests this zone, I will increase my position by an additional 20%, which will leave me with 60% exposure in my portfolio. I never go in 100% yet because I like to maintain a margin of maneuver for any necessary adjustments.
What am I seeing on the daily chart?
In the daily timeframe, the last candles show us a clear correction. It is not an abrupt drop or a trend change yet, as the volume in these red candles is lower compared to the previous bullish momentum. This tells me that buyers still have a presence, but the market is looking for liquidity lower down before continuing.
Here I expect two things:
1. A deep retracement: Ideally towards the 85-88 zone.
2. Confirmation of structural change (CHoCH): If this zone holds, I'm looking for a clear bullish breakout on 4H or 1D to re-enter with more strength.
What is happening in the monthly?
If we look at the monthly timeframe, the middle of November's candle is a strong-bodied marubozu. This level, as I said, is between 85 and 88, and it is the zone I am watching closely. Why? Because historically, when the price retraces to the middle of such a strong monthly candle, it tends to generate a significant reaction.
Additionally, there is an imbalance (liquidity void) lower down, between 77 and 80, which I am also considering. If the market gets there, I would evaluate increasing my position again.
Projection for 2025
I remain firm that the start of the year will be bullish. These types of consolidations usually prepare for strong movements, and considering macroeconomic factors (like the upcoming halving) and growing institutional interest, I expect BTC to eventually break 100K.
However, not everything will be straightforward. Before breaking highs, we will likely see sideways movements and sweeps to accumulate liquidity. That’s why I will keep evaluating daily and weekly movements.
Conclusion and action plan
1. Buy zone: I am waiting for the range between 85 and 88 to add an additional 20% to my portfolio.
2. Portfolio management: My current exposure is 40%. If the 85-88 zone holds, I will increase it to 60%. I will keep the rest of my capital as a reserve for any eventuality.
3. Confirmations: In lower timeframes, I will look for structural changes (CHoCH and BOS) before entering with more strength.
4. Risks: If the market breaks below 85, the next zone to watch will be between 77 and 80.
I stay focused, managing risk and prepared to act according to market movements. Remember: patience pays off, and my priority is always to protect my capital.
Thank you for reading, greetings, and remember these are not investment advice, I am only sharing my personal perspectives #letstalkabouttrading
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Daily
Monthly
