As usual, I just want to see trading strategies at the end.

Yesterday was another exciting and eventful day. The greater the storm, the more valuable the fish; it was a stimulating, fulfilling, and rewarding day.

First of all, I admit my mistake. The short-term long position suggested yesterday was stopped out. The suggestion was to go long near 96000-96500, with a stop loss at 95000. I still underestimated the market's brutality. When I wrote the post yesterday, the market was still sluggish. After the European stock market opened, the DAX opened significantly lower and continued to decline, directly dragging the NASDAQ futures down. Compared to the previous day's closing price, NASDAQ futures fell over 400 points, or 2%. Of course, this also dragged BTC down into the abyss. By the time I posted, BTC had just touched the high point around 98300, then it fell all the way down. I planned to buy near 96000 but seeing it drop without any resistance, I knew it was going to end badly. Breaking below 96000 and yesterday's low of 95600 was quick and decisive; at that time, I felt 95000 would also break. BTC struggled around 95000 for about an hour before finally breaking down. I sighed complexly, excitement barely contained. The sigh was for the first failure of my suggested trades; I will need to apologize tomorrow. It's not the first time I failed in trading; failure is the mother of success, after all. The excitement came from the DAX short position nearing the take profit point—let's keep going. It's quite a split feeling.

Actually, it's not that split. The strategy suggested the day before was to short at highs, and yesterday's strategy was to go long at lows and short at highs. I mentioned that I thought there was a high probability for a rebound yesterday; I just didn't know where the bottom was, so I could only guess. The recent bottom was the low of 95600 from the day before, with the second being around 94000, which is the previously identified lower bound of the range. Going lower than that is hard to predict. So yesterday, I took three long positions on BTC: first near 96000, then got stopped out at 95000; second near 94300, got stopped out at 93800; and third at around 92600, which finally succeeded in bottom fishing. Why did I buy at 92600? You hit the nail on the head. Simply looking at BTC's trend, I had a buy order at 91000. The reason I went long on BTC again was that my DAX short hit the take profit level just a bit after 8 PM last night, leading to DAX falling to the upper support of an important previous platform. There was a high probability of a significant rebound here. I then manually closed my NASDAQ short, and shortly after, NASDAQ futures stopped falling. Following that, BTC reached its bottom. DXA, NASDAQ, and BTC essentially all bottomed out around 8:30 PM last night. Is it a coincidence? Of course not! In extreme emotions, the NASDAQ futures that haven't opened may also distort and make it difficult to predict highs and lows. With DAX opening and just hitting an important support level, it pulled other risky assets to rebound, not just the three major US stock indices and BTC but also Hang Seng index futures, gold, crude oil, etc., all started to rebound from the bottom, just with varying degrees of strength. Is it miraculous? Surprising? I mentioned in previous posts that these seemingly unrelated items can easily become correlated at major turning points and in extreme emotions. This is the value of observing and analyzing BTC alongside other global indices, commodities, and even forex markets. Although it doesn't show much in normal times, its value is immeasurable at critical moments and key nodes.

Similarly, I generally only look at BTC; occasionally, I also check ETH and SOL. The trading suggestions I provide are mainly for BTC. However, others may not trade BTC but instead trade other coins. If the forecast for BTC's market is correct, especially at key nodes, it can serve as a reference when trading familiar assets, leading to greater profits. Observant investors might notice that ETH bottomed out about half an hour before BTC last night. After ETH hit the bottom, BTC continued to fluctuate at the bottom, but ETH had already started to rebound and was no longer following BTC's new lows. This could be a signal, a reference point. Predictions are arrived at by many details corroborating each other, and the devil is hidden in the details. Thus, if you go bottom fishing for ETH or other assets with good elasticity and high activity, wouldn't your earnings be even greater?

I apologize for not posting yesterday to remind about bottom fishing. Firstly, I made two wrong attempts myself and only succeeded on the third try; having already made one error in the post, I should theoretically stop and rest; posting again to shout 'buy' would be overly emotional, so I only shared it with those around me. Secondly, I was indeed quite busy at that time; after my DAX short automatically took profit, I immediately needed to consider whether to follow suit with the NASDAQ short and whether to reverse and bottom fish. Which asset should I bottom fish? I ultimately chose to bottom fish the Dow Jones index and took a third long on BTC. Thirdly, the stop loss for my third BTC long was hard to set; I set it at 89800, which is 2700 points away from the cost price, unreasonable and unfriendly to ordinary investors. Summarizing, after thinking for a minute, I decided not to post.

The NASDAQ rebounded as expected, but there were also hidden dangers in the market last night, as the NASDAQ fell back at the end. Even if yesterday was the recent bottom for the NASDAQ, according to its nature, it is likely to test it again. But for the next couple of days, we don't need to consider it for now; the NASDAQ is not open for trading, let's talk again in a couple of days.

After several days of high volatility in BTC, it is expected to calm down a bit over the weekend with slight fluctuations.

From a higher-level perspective, I still define it as a range-bound trading market. The larger range is 94000-107000. You can refer to this range to trade small trend movements: go long near or below 94000, and go short near or above 107000. You can hold positions taken at the upper and lower bounds of the range for a few more days to watch for small trend movements.

In the small-scale intraday market, these two days can be used for high selling and low buying; take profits when it's good. Actually, a nice weekend is also fine for resting for two days. Since getting involved with BTC, it feels like the crypto world never takes a break; it's exhausting.


As of now when posting, the market has been falling back, weaker than I expected, likely still affected by the late decline of the NASDAQ. Go long near 96800-97000, but setting a stop loss is tricky, perhaps at 96000, and watch around 98500; short near 98900 or 99800, with a stop loss at 100200, targeting 97000 and 96000. The risk-reward ratio is not high; it can be done or not, taking a break for two days is also fine.#加密市场反弹 $BTC