This article looks at the transformative growth that the cryptocurrency market may experience in 2025. As institutional adoption increases and application cases expand across various fields, cryptocurrency assets are gradually maturing. Moreover, trends such as an improved regulatory environment, the development of stablecoins and payments, and the tokenization of traditional assets will further propel the cryptocurrency market in 2025. This article is derived from a piece written by Coinbase and organized and translated by PANews. (Background: Institutions are optimistic about the continued explosion of RWA in 2025, highlighting four projects worth noting) (Context: Fed spokesperson: The era of ultra-low interest rates is over, Trump holds the key to interest rate cuts in 2025) Looking ahead to 2025, the crypto market is set to usher in transformative growth. With increased institutional adoption and expanding use cases across various fields, the maturity of asset classes continues to gain momentum. In just the past year, spot ETFs have been approved in the U.S., the tokenization of financial products has surged, and stablecoins have seen significant growth, further integrating into the global payment framework. Achieving this goal is no easy task. While it's easy to view these successes as the result of years of effort, more and more people believe that this is actually just the beginning of a grand journey. Considering that just a year ago, this asset class was still stumbling due to interest rate hikes, regulatory crackdowns, and an uncertain path forward, the progress of cryptocurrency is even more impressive. Despite facing all these challenges, cryptocurrency has become a solid alternative asset, proving its resilience. However, from the market's perspective, the upward trend in 2024 indeed has some notable differences from previous bull market cycles. Some of these are superficial: "Web3" has been replaced by the more appropriate "on-chain." Others have more far-reaching effects: the demand for fundamentals has begun to replace the influence of narrative-driven investment strategies, partly due to the increased level of institutional participation. Additionally, not only has Bitcoin's dominance surged, but innovations in DeFi have also pushed the boundaries of blockchain — making the foundation of a new financial ecosystem within reach. Central banks and major financial institutions around the world are discussing how crypto technology can make asset issuance, trading, and record-keeping more efficient. Looking to the future, the current crypto domain presents many promising developments. At the forefront of disruption, we are focusing on decentralized peer-to-peer exchanges, decentralized prediction markets, and AI agents equipped with crypto wallets. On the institutional side, there is tremendous potential in stablecoins and payments (which bring crypto and fiat banking solutions closer together), low-collateral on-chain lending (facilitated by on-chain credit scoring), and compliant on-chain capital formation. Despite high awareness of cryptocurrencies, this technology remains obscure to many due to its novel technical structure. However, technological innovation is also expected to change this status quo, as more and more projects focus on improving user experience by abstracting blockchain complexity and enhancing smart contract functionality. Success in this regard could broaden the accessibility of cryptocurrencies to new users. Meanwhile, the U.S. has laid a clearer regulatory foundation in 2024, well ahead of the November elections. This sets the stage for greater progress in 2025, with the potential to solidify the position of digital assets in mainstream finance. As the regulatory and technological landscape evolves, significant growth is expected in the crypto ecosystem, as broader adoption will drive the industry closer to realizing its full potential. 2025 will be a key year, with breakthroughs and advancements likely to help shape the long-term development trajectory of the crypto industry for decades to come. Topic 1: 2025 Macro Roadmap What does the U.S. Federal Reserve want, and what does the U.S. Federal Reserve need? Trump's victory in the 2024 U.S. presidential election is the most important catalyst for the crypto market in Q4 of 2024, driving Bitcoin up by 4-5 standard deviations (compared to the three-month average). However, looking ahead, the response of short-term fiscal policy may not be as meaningful as the long-term direction of monetary policy, especially with the key moment for the U.S. Federal Reserve approaching. However, separating the two may not be so easy. The U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to continue easing monetary policy in 2025, but the pace may depend on the expansiveness of the next set of fiscal policies. This is because tax cuts and tariffs could push inflation higher, although the overall CPI has dropped to 2.7% year-on-year, the core CPI still hovers around 3.3%, above the Federal Reserve's target. In any case, the U.S. Federal Reserve wants to curb inflation from current levels, which means prices need to rise, but slow down from now on to help achieve its other mission — full employment. On the other hand, households, after experiencing the pain of rising prices over the past two years, have been demanding lower prices. However, while a drop in prices may be politically expedient, it could risk falling into a vicious cycle, ultimately leading to an economic recession. Nevertheless, thanks to declining long-term interest rates and the U.S. exceptionalism 2.0, a soft landing seems to be the current baseline scenario. At this point, the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts are merely symbolic, as credit conditions have already loosened, providing a supportive backdrop for the performance of cryptocurrencies in the next 1-2 quarters. Meanwhile, as more dollars circulate in the economy, the projected deficit spending of the next government (if realized) should translate into greater risk-taking (crypto purchases). The most supportive U.S. Congress for cryptocurrency ever After battling regulatory ambiguity for years, the next U.S. legislative session may enhance regulatory clarity for the crypto industry. This election sends a strong message to Washington that the public is dissatisfied with the current financial system and seeks change. From the market's perspective, both parties in the House and Senate support cryptocurrency, which means that U.S. regulation may shift from "headwinds" to "tailwinds" in 2025. One new discussion point is the possibility of establishing strategic Bitcoin reserves. Following the Bitcoin Nashville conference, Senator Cynthia Lummis (WY) not only introduced a Bitcoin bill in July 2024 but also proposed a Pennsylvania Bitcoin Strategic Reserve bill. If passed, the latter would allow state treasurers to invest up to 10% of their general funds in Bitcoin or other crypto-based instruments. Michigan and Wisconsin have already held cryptocurrencies or crypto ETFs in their pension funds, with Florida following suit. However, establishing strategic Bitcoin reserves may face some challenges, such as the legal limits on the amount of Bitcoin the Federal Reserve can hold on its balance sheet. Meanwhile, the U.S. is not the only jurisdiction preparing to make progress on regulatory matters. The global growth in crypto demand is also changing the competitive regulatory landscape internationally. The EU's Markets in Crypto-Assets regulation (MiCA) is being implemented in phases, providing a clear framework for the industry. Many G20 countries, as well as major financial centers such as the UK, UAE, Hong Kong, and Singapore, are also actively formulating rules adapted to digital assets, creating a more favorable environment for innovation and growth. Crypto ETF 2.0 The U.S. approval of spot Bitcoin and Ethereum exchange-traded products and funds (ETPs and ETFs) marks a watershed moment for the crypto economy, attracting a net inflow of $30.7 billion since its inception (about 11 months). This far exceeds the inflow attracted by SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) in the first year after its launch in October 2004...