The decisions of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell have a direct impact on the global economy, traditional markets, and the cryptocurrency market. Any action from the Fed can significantly change price dynamics and investor sentiment. Let’s consider how the market may react to Powell's key actions.
1. Increase in interest rates
If the Fed under Powell announces an increase in rates to combat inflation:
Traditional markets: The cost of borrowing for businesses and consumers will rise, which may slow economic growth. Stocks, especially in the technology sector, often fall in response to such actions.
Cryptocurrencies: The crypto market generally reacts negatively to the tightening of monetary policy. An increase in rates reduces the availability of liquidity, leading to a withdrawal of funds from risky assets, including Bitcoin and altcoins.
Investor reaction: There will be an increased shift to 'safe havens', such as the US dollar or gold.
2. Decrease in interest rates or quantitative easing (QE)
If Powell decides to lower rates or start a new QE program to support the economy:
Traditional markets: Stocks will start to rise due to an influx of cheap capital, especially in sectors sensitive to liquidity (technology, real estate).
Cryptocurrencies: High liquidity stimulates price growth in crypto assets. Investors will seek assets with high potential returns, which may trigger a new bull market for Bitcoin and Ethereum.
Inflation: Easing monetary policy may raise inflation expectations, which could also increase interest in cryptocurrencies as a hedge against the devaluation of fiat money.
3. Statements about the digital dollar or new rules for cryptocurrencies
If Powell makes an important statement about the launch of a digital dollar (CBDC) or increased regulation of cryptocurrencies:
Digital dollar: The announcement of the implementation of CBDC may raise concerns about competition with cryptocurrencies. Regulations may increase pressure on assets such as stablecoins.
Increased regulation: New rules or restrictions may lead to short-term volatility in the crypto market but can also enhance its credibility among institutional investors in the long term.
Example: Reaction to an unexpected decision
Historically, any unexpected statements or actions by Powell cause increased volatility across all markets. For example:
In 2022, when the Fed began to sharply raise rates, cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin fell by more than 50% in just a few months.
In 2020, the launch of QE programs led to a rise in all risky assets, including crypto assets.
What should investors do?
Portfolio diversification: To protect against volatility, it is worth distributing assets among traditional instruments, cryptocurrencies, and defensive assets.
Watch for Fed statements: Powell's decisions often signal the direction of market movements.
Preparing for volatility: Investors should be ready for sharp price movements, especially if markets price in one expectation while the Fed makes an opposite decision.
Jerome Powell is a key player in the global economy, and his actions are always
and will be in the spotlight for both traditional and crypto investors.