The U.S. dollar index rose to its highest level in more than two years at 108.26, while the euro, pound and others fell 1% on the same day, and our offshore RMB exchange rate also came to its lowest level since 2023 at 7.32; looking at the sharp drop in the mid-term capital market, the S&P 500 index had its largest single-day drop since 2001 (on the day of the interest rate decision), the Nasdaq index had its largest drop in five months, and the Nasdaq Golden Dragon Index also fell 2.4%.
An interest rate meeting that was originally in line with market expectations, because the signal released by the central bank may be "stop further interest rate cuts", which led to investors selling risky assets in large numbers. So what are the things we must pay attention to in this matter?
First, although we said in our previous economic work conference that we would adopt a "moderately loose monetary policy", the US has given a signal that it is not so loose in terms of interest rate cuts, so the policy pressure on us next year will be greater than before. Of course, as to whether this "signal" is further pressure from them after seeing the loosening of our economic policy, it is not known yet, but what we can know is that the difference in interest rates between us and them will further widen.
Second, judging from their current description, the US economy is still relatively resilient. There is no sign of economic recession.
Third, there may be only two interest rate cuts next year, which is another confirmation to the whole world, including us, that we will impose additional tariffs in the future, and the intensity may not be small.
Fourth, the U.S. stock market fell so sharply yesterday that it cannot be ruled out that it will have a direct impact on other capital markets for a certain period of time. Finally, the offshore RMB exchange rate has now reached a temporary low, so under such circumstances, there is further pressure on our capital market.
For the cryptocurrency world, while forecasts of future rate cuts are currently affecting prices, they may not have a long-term impact as Bitcoin’s correlation with major stock indices has declined.
“The slower pace of rate cuts expected in 2025 is not entirely surprising, but has put some pressure on risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. While macro factors have traditionally influenced cryptocurrency price action, sector-specific factors could take over in the coming weeks and months, particularly as markets anticipate policy changes from the incoming administration.”
Bitcoin didn't fall much this time. It's just that the copycats suffered a lot this time! Many copycats were almost cut in half! You said to cut interest rates, so cut interest rates, but you have to say that my economy is strong and I will slow down the pace of interest rate cuts in 2025! You are really stubborn! !
After this wave of Bitcoin correction, many altcoins have fallen a lot! In the future, altcoins will not fall much either, so you can slowly lay out your spot positions. When the market falls, you can enter the market in layers!
