2024/12/20

At the beginning of the month, I reminded you of the risks. I hope everyone has made risk plans according to what I said.

You have been scolding me for so long, but the correction at the end of the fourth quarter finally came as expected. I hope you will stop scolding me in the future. My understanding of the positive factors may have some deviations, but I am definitely a good hand in helping you avoid potential risks.

Why will you never see xx coins at xx price?

Now it seems that it is not the case...

Digital currency is something that has no limit to its rise and no bottom to its fall.

When good news comes out, it will pile up.

When bad news comes out, the bad news piles up just the same.

The Japanese interest rate panel panicked for a day, rebounded in the afternoon, and then the main force began to sell. The altcoins were dragged along by Bitcoin for 3 months with no way to correct, and finally got the chance to correct, and they are not even pretending anymore...

Push up to sell, smash the market to absorb funds, this is the logic behind all altcoin rises and falls, it will not change.

For those who are trapped in short positions in altcoins, most should have been released from their positions; for those who haven't, remember to reduce your position, you don't have to go long, but you need to reduce your short position. Then, when the 4-hour slope line returns to positive, re-enter long; the long position should be 2x the short position, and when it runs up by 4%, the profit from the long position can cover the loss from the short position, then close the short position.

If you are trapped in long positions in the spot market, do not increase your position now; if you are unsure where the bottom is, patiently wait for the 4-hour slope to return to positive, or when it can stabilize at the 4-hour lower track KC1, open a 1x long position in coin terms there, if you can’t open in coin terms, you can add a bit of position there.

In the end, the market has always had fewer than 4 rate hike expectations for next year; how many times in total is not important, but 150 basis points are fixed. In September this year, 50 basis points were a surprise, and later in November 25, December 25. Next year, there will only be 50 basis points, we can't divide it into four times, once 12.5, right?

It's actually just the Christmas holiday effect, and then the altcoin manipulators use it as an opportunity to wash the market. Wash away the high-position chips, and then pull up again.

It won't be as some friends say, that we will enter a bear market from now on, you don’t need to worry; until the last interest rate cut is over, it will still be a bull market.

If you're looking to buy the dip, many altcoins have already reached the lower track of the daily KC1, but if Bitcoin doesn't show signs of stopping the decline, entering the market directly carries certain risks.

So the dumbest way is to configure Kent according to my pinned instructions, then switch the time to 8 hours and daily, and pay attention to where the current price is running. It is unlikely to directly reverse at a suspended position. If it breaks one position, the probability of going to the mid-track and lower track of the next time level is more than 80%.

Given that many altcoins have already dropped to previous lows, such as ORDI's 18~23, it's a good entry position. If you're afraid of missing out, you can enter in a way of 3,3,4, or 2,2,3,4.

But my suggestion is, if you are entering the spot at the lower track, if you lose 1%, then cut your position in half, if you lose another 1%, continue to cut your position in half, repeat this three times, and the last time directly close it, then wait for a larger time level. This way, the total loss is about 1.87%, and the overall loss is not large, and it can also prevent you from missing out.

Don't be so pessimistic, the bull market isn't over yet.

However, at this moment, you can pay attention to the people you used to follow; see if they are the same ones who were desperately FOMOing others to go long a few days ago, and now spreading panic statements that the bull market is over, and that there are bearish factors everywhere, it’s the same group of people creating FUD.

Take another look at those who open shorts at the mountain top and longs at the foot of the mountain, what kind of people are they who are trying to fish with two rods.

Take another look at your own orders, and recall how it became like this.

Finally, really don't scold anymore; if you keep scolding, I may not do risk warnings anymore. The risk warnings I send aren't to make you short; they are to let you prepare in advance, push up stop-loss levels if needed, and take some profits if you should. Protect your earnings well. If you need to hedge, I really don't mean to harm you.

You have been telling me before, friends who bought against me, I hope you are doing well now.