Source: Talking about Li and other things
The current atmosphere seems to be quite interesting. Three days ago, everyone was still happily discussing the bull market, but now three days later, many people have started to be bearish! So some friends began to complain: If I had known, I would have sold it a few days ago, if I had known, I would not have bought it a few days ago, if I had known, I would have…
In fact, from the beginning of our content output to now, there are new partners paying attention to Hualihuawai every day, and we have received many messages on "eternal topics" for a long time. Most of the messages are basically asking about prices. The most common ones are asking when the top of the market will appear, what the top price will be, when the bottom of the market will be, how much a certain token can rise to at most... and other deterministic questions.
It is precisely because many people always hope to find or inquire about a 100% certain answer that various analysts and trading mentors have been increasingly followed and chased online. But we still hold the same view: your wallet is your own, and you should always be responsible for your investments. No matter what those mentors or perpetual profit masters say, you need to understand that all statements are merely probabilistic; no one can accurately predict market tops or bottoms with 100% certainty.
As Hui said in the group yesterday: no one can buy at the lowest and sell at the highest; if someone can, they are either God or part of a scam.
And if you still decide to casually base your investment decisions on seeking a 100% certain answer from others, then it may also mark the beginning of your losses in a bull market. Perhaps you will have good luck and sail smoothly at the beginning, but this is more likely just that you happened to catch a phase of the bullish trend, and most people who engage in such behavior ultimately end up losing profits or even principal.
In addition, for most people, greed seems to be a relatively fatal issue in investing, for example:
- When the market is rising, they often do not consider locking in some profits according to plan, and may even continue to blindly chase higher prices until they exhaust their principal.
- When the market declines, they often end up losing (or even cutting losses) their positions out of fear. At the same time, due to unwillingness, they will continue to blindly search for other assets to supposedly buy at the bottom, hoping to quickly recover their capital or turn things around.
In this field, many people always treat speculation as investment and hope to accumulate wealth in a very short time, without considering making money as a long-term plan or strategy. Some even leave comments saying: this field is inherently a bubble and a scam, including Bitcoin which is also a scam. I came in just to chase speculation and the dream of getting rich. Your long-term investment concept is completely unreliable.
Of course, how to view, how to think, and how to plan to act are each person's freedom, so we will not argue with others about this, nor will we try to prove anything.
We often hear a saying: history does not repeat itself, but it often rhymes. Especially in the investment market, if you have experienced 2-3 cycles, you should be able to relate.
At this stage, for many newcomers, the bull market is just beginning, but for those who have been dollar-cost averaging for more than two years, they are more concerned about how to reasonably take profits in batches. Of course, some old investors or analysts may have more aggressive views; these people still believe that this bull market cycle has just begun, and a $100,000 Bitcoin is just the starting point. They also believe that next year there will be over 100 million new investors coming in to buy the dip...
The market is often such a place, filled with freedom of speech, but also full of various noises. The so-called opportunities to make money in the market continuously flow between various statements and noises.
In a recent article about market tops, we have already sorted out the 15 major reference indicators for escaping the Bitcoin bull market from a data perspective. Today, let’s take this topic and conduct some sorting from the perspective of 'intuitive feelings', to see how we can 'feel' our way to the top during a bull market.
1. Discover that your friend circle starts discussing cryptocurrencies.
I remember in a previous article before this discussion, we mentioned that in the mid to late stage of a bull market, there are several noticeable personal experiences, such as people who have never talked about crypto partners start discussing cryptocurrencies in their friend circles, and many celebrities from outside the circle also begin to publicly and intensively discuss cryptocurrencies on social platforms.
This is actually quite understandable because as market trends develop, when BTC breaks new historical highs and can create some milestone events, many mainstream media will report on it, coupled with some celebrities adding fuel to the fire, this will lead more outsiders to refocus on this field.
Therefore, if you find that people start discussing cryptocurrencies while shopping at malls or hanging out at popular coffee shops, or if your friend circle starts discussing cryptocurrencies, especially those colleagues or relatives who have never talked about crypto before, or even old friends you haven't contacted in years suddenly call you asking how to download an exchange or what coins to buy, then it may be time for you to consider taking some profits.
2. Discover that the vast majority of people are bullish.
During this bear market, even when Bitcoin was around $20,000, shouting at the top of our lungs was useless, because under that sentiment, most people would still continue to be bearish.
Conversely, during a bull market, when Bitcoin successfully breaks historical highs and reaches the $100,000 mark, even if we have started to warn about risks, everyone is excited, and many analysts also tell you that it will continue to rise to $200,000 or even $300,000 next year, most people believe it.
Of course, this sentiment is not just directed at Bitcoin; it also applies to all cryptocurrencies. For example, if you find that everyone in social platforms and various communities is in high spirits and even rushing into a particular asset, then you should be cautious as this may mean that the phase of rising has already started to near its end.
3. Discover that traditional reputable media/programs have started extensive reporting.
Due to the uniqueness of the crypto market, in many places, traditional reputable media rarely conduct extensive reporting.
If you find that traditional reputable media that has never reported on cryptocurrencies has started to report continuously, or even some traditional TV programs are beginning to mention cryptocurrencies, then it may mean that we are approaching the later stage of the bull market.
As exposure increases and influence grows, the market will experience FOMO, and most people will start to be bullish. However, this sentiment will always reach a peak; once the bullish sentiment stops or cannot continue to drive the market price up, then even if the fundamentals are still there, the market is likely to experience a phase of decline.
Once a phase of decline appears, based on past experience, various media and KOLs may continue to generate a large amount of bearish information to maintain traffic, combined with market sentiment, this will lead to a gradual decline in the market turning into a rapid decline, at which point most people will no longer pay attention to any fundamentals.
4. Discover that people around you are starting to show off wealth or want to help you get rich.
I have also experienced this several times; let me give a small example:
I remember during the last bull market, a friend who usually doesn't post much on social media started showing off his luxury watch and even posted about his new car purchase. I just casually liked the post, and he actively chatted with me, asking if I understood cryptocurrencies. I said I didn't understand at all, and he said he could help me buy coins to get rich, and he also said he had resigned and planned to go all in on cryptocurrencies. However, later I declined, citing lack of investment funds.
Although in this field, when the bull market ends, looking back most people will lose money, there are indeed some people who can achieve short-term wealth accumulation during the bull market, so they may habitually boast about it through friend circles or social platforms. In fact, this is not about right or wrong, just a normal human psychological expression.
However, as market participants and bystanders to these individuals, we may also need to pay attention to the fact that people's boasting (including various sharing of gains) often indicates that market sentiment is clearly in a state of greed, and what we need to do is to start selling when others are greedy and start buying when they are fearful.
5. Discover that various bloggers are becoming active, and many analysts are popping up.
Recently, I also spent some time searching and observing. Taking public accounts as an example, I found that many accounts were registered this year and these bloggers are quite active. At the same time, various self-proclaimed analysts also started to become active online and in various communities, attracting attention through various sharing (definitely showcasing high-yield trades) and other behaviors.
With the large emergence of various perpetual profit masters and successful people, more and more novices are attracted, and at the same time, we will also notice that the frequency of scams is increasing. Many novices may end up losing all their capital, and even taking on a lot of online debt.
In other words, if you find that more and more new bloggers are becoming active, more and more new circles are emerging, more and more old circles are reviving, more and more stories of wealth accumulation are presented to you, and more and more cases of scams are surrounding you, then it means that we may be approaching the later stage of the bull market.
6. Discover that some old projects are extracting liquidity.
In a bull market, when market sentiment reaches a certain level, even those old projects that seem to have little room for growth can start to rise and absorb market liquidity. When this occurs, we should be cautious, as the rise of such projects often means we are experiencing the tail end of the bull market.
Additionally, one can also observe changes in market trend indicators to see if the upward trend may be about to break. Although many indicators (like MACD) may have certain lags, if you can sense that the upward trend seems to be or is about to be broken, it means one of two scenarios: either the market will enter a phase of consolidation, or it may directly enter a new downward channel. At this point, the choice for many is actually quite difficult because they fear selling too early and fear being trapped; the trend needs to emerge to clarify, and before that, it is all probabilistic judgment.
Of course, the six points we simply listed above are more about feelings and do not have rigorous data support, just for entertainment. We hope to make some 'feeling-based (from different angles and thoughts)' judgments about the progress of the bull market. In the end, it’s still the same saying: no one can predict the market top with 100% accuracy. If you are still trying to seek such a certain answer, then I can only wish you not to lose your principal after this bull market ends. However, if you want to make money in this bull market, what we need to do is actually to strictly manage our 'position' as repeatedly emphasized in previous articles.