Since the U.S. Federal Reserve adopted a hawkish stance, the cryptocurrency market has rapidly plunged, with Bitcoin crashing from $104,800 on the 19th to a low of $95,700 today, a cumulative drop of 8.7%. In the past 24 hours, the total liquidation amount across the network reached $1 billion, with over 300,000 people liquidated, leading to significant losses.
However, before this wave of decline, Bitcoin had reached an all-time high of $108,300 on the 17th, and several technical analysts are still optimistic about Bitcoin's future price trend, believing this is a healthy correction with the potential for further increases.
The Bollinger Bands suggest a continuation of the upward trend.
John Bollinger, the creator of the well-known technical indicator 'Bollinger Bands', tweeted on the morning of the 19th that Bitcoin's recent trend perfectly showcases the classic application of the Bollinger Bands.
After experiencing a squeeze phase, the price has begun to steadily rise along the upper band of the Bollinger Bands.
This statement suggests that Bitcoin's trend is very strong and may continue to rise.
In technical analysis, after a Bollinger Band squeeze, prices typically choose a direction to break out, and the current trend shows that Bitcoin's price is steadily rising along the upper band of the Bollinger Bands, which is characteristic of a bullish market and has a high probability of further increases.
Fibonacci extension predicts breaking $160,000 in February next year.
Technical analyst CryptoCon, who has over 110,000 followers on X, also shared his views based on Fibonacci indicators on the 19th. He pointed out that Bitcoin is recently approaching its historical high of $109,000, a value consistent with the Fibonacci extension target, showcasing the accuracy of this indicator.
Looking ahead, CryptoCon believes Bitcoin is likely to break $160,000 in February 2025. He stated:
What will happen next? Will there be a major correction?
As the bull market fully kicks off, corrections are no longer the main focus. Of course, this does not mean that corrections will not occur; it's just that their impact has become less significant. The opportunity to buy cryptocurrencies at this stage has already passed.
What are the next milestones and time points in the future?
I set the next target at the Fibonacci 5.618 extension level, with a price of about $166,000. The time I estimate is February 2025, based on the current acceleration trend and trajectory.
This is not metaphysics, but rather a target inferred from accurate Fibonacci extensions and important time frames.
Additionally, I believe that the peak in February will not be the end of this market cycle.
The fear index indicates a bottom.
Moreover, the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) volatility index (VIX), known as the 'fear index', also signals that Bitcoin prices may reach a local bottom. On Thursday, the VIX surged 74%, marking the largest single-day increase since February 5, 2018, and becoming the second-largest growth record in the history of the index.
Historical data shows that significant spikes in the VIX usually indicate local bottoms for Bitcoin. For example:
February 5, 2018: On that day, the VIX surged 116%, and Bitcoin plummeted 16% to $6,891. However, just 15 days later (February 20), Bitcoin's price rebounded to over $11,000.
August 5, 2024: During the closing of yen arbitrage trades, the VIX rose by 65%. At that time, Bitcoin's price fell by 6%, reaching a local low of around $54,000, and rebounded to over $64,000 on August 23.
Overall economic factors still need to be considered.
However, experts remind that these theories do not fully consider overall economic factors. The current market is highly uncertain, influenced by U.S. and Japanese monetary policies. In the context of the U.S. interest rate cuts in 2025 and delays in expectations for Japanese yen rate hikes, the yen arbitrage gap may be delayed like an unexploded bomb, which could lead investors to be unwilling to invest in high-risk assets in the short term, especially more cautious Wall Street investors.
Will the trends indicated by technical analysis indicators be validated again? Let's wait and see.