Last night, BTC retreated sharply, breaking the 30-day moving average of 98.7k and temporarily reaching around 96k. It turns out that a paper tiger is also a tiger. For reasons related to the macro situation, friends who follow my recent articles and join the internal group should be clear:
One is the panic caused by Google's Willow quantum computer some time ago.
Second, the Federal Reserve gave negative expectations for future interest rate cuts in the early hours of yesterday. The next 1-2 weeks will be the stage for digesting this news.
Bitcoin drops to 95,700, how low will it fall? Where is the bottom?
If we look at the K-line, we will find that BTC has been trading sideways at a high level for 35 days. And the bottom is getting higher and higher. Although it broke through 100,000 and fell to around 90,500 on December 5, the subsequent declines were stable above 94,000 until the black swan appeared at the Federal Reserve meeting. There is also an expectation that the United States will include BTC in its strategic reserves.
Currently, the drop is almost over. To put it simply, even if the K-line price falls below 94,000 and then quickly rebounds, that does not constitute breaking support. Looking at the on-chain data, the URPD data for BTC shows that there is strong support at 94,000 and 95,000.
After all, data is dead, but human emotions are 'alive'. Now is a period of high-level fluctuations waiting for a new direction. The new direction will be in Q1 of next year.
In the cryptocurrency world, who is the butcher and who is the meat? Where are the profit opportunities in altcoins?
In a zero-sum game market, it's simply money moving from one person's pocket to another's. Whether in a bull or bear market, this essence will not change. The market is always changing, so everyone's opinions are also changing. Don’t think that being optimistic last month and pessimistic this month means you are not steadfast or that you are a fence-sitter.
When did ETH become strong? I feel it started with the last major liquidations of ETH, when the bulls basically surrendered. So on November 21, I felt ETH was going to become strong.
The logic of the coin ORDI is somewhat similar; the market bulls have almost all been liquidated and surrendered, so it may be easier to navigate going forward.
However, ETH is the leader among altcoins; it’s a public chain, and its fundamentals are much better than those of ORDI, making direct comparisons difficult. If you have the ability, try to play with new coins, as they can make money much faster. Anyway, I firmly believe that the Bitcoin ecosystem will certainly not be absent; allocating some is fine, and there's no need to limit yourself to just one sector.
If you want to catch a deeper bottom, then watch the situation of BTC dipping below 95,700 while observing the dip amplitude of altcoins.
I mentioned before that whether to split positions or go all in depends on personal habits. As for catching the bottom, I've provided some thoughts in previous articles. Or if you're afraid and want to wait for stability before entering, that's fine too; after all, no one can buy at the lowest point.
If you seek stability, you can also consider buying coins in the top 30. (This was mentioned in previous articles.)
Suggestion: Stay calm in the spot market, retreat to progress.