With the countdown to Christmas beginning, the market is buzzing with anticipation to see whether the festive spirit will spark a record rally this year. Historically, Bitcoin (BTC) has experienced a “Christmas Rally” during halving years, characterized by upward price movements in the week leading up to December 25th.
The question remains: will this year follow the same pattern or will the market chart a different course?
Analysts predict Bitcoin could repeat Christmas performance
Year-to-date (YTD), Bitcoin’s price has increased by 137%, recently surpassing the $108,000 mark before its recent decline. Despite the slight pullback, there is talk in some corners suggesting that the asset could trade higher in the upcoming Christmas week.
It’s important to note that the cryptocurrency doesn’t consistently rise every Christmas. However, in bull market phases, it tends to perform well during this period. On the other hand, bear markets usually bring significant declines for Bitcoin during the festive season.
Data from Coinglass shows that in the 2020 halving year, Bitcoin rose 25.63% during the Christmas week (the 52nd week). Similarly, in 2016, it rose 11.25%, and in 2012, it recorded another double-digit gain.
Bitcoin Weekly Returns. Source: Coinglass
Furthermore, BTC has already seen an 8.71% increase this December. If historical trends hold, the cryptocurrency could see further gains in the coming week, potentially approaching the $120,000 mark.
Interestingly, some analysts have expressed confidence that something similar could happen this year. One such investor is Mister Crypto.
Bitcoin always goes parabolic around Christmas in halving years. This time will be no different, Mister Crypto shared on X (formerly Twitter).
Another analyst, Crypto Rover, mentioned that Bitcoin’s “Christmas Rally” would happen in 2024.
On-chain data suggests price rally
From an on-chain perspective, several extreme Bitcoin cycle oscillators support the possibility of further price jumps. Taking the Cycle Top and Cycle Bottom signals for example, BeInCrypto notes that BTC tops when the Cycle Top is greater than 0.85.
On the other hand, the cryptocurrency bottoms when the Cycle Bottom reading is less than 0.70. As seen below, Bitcoin has already moved beyond the bottom but has not yet reached the peak of this cycle. If buying pressure increases in Christmas week, it could surpass its all-time high of $108,268.
Bitcoin Cycle Extreme Oscillators. Source: checkonchain
Additionally, the Puell Multiple also aligns with bias. The Puell Multiple uses the current price of Bitcoin to provide a comparable perspective. It helps determine whether the price of Bitcoin is relatively high or low compared to its historical trends.
Readings above 6 indicate a market top, while those below 0.4 signify a bottom. According to CryptoQuant, Bitcoin’s Puell Multiple is 1.15. This current reading indicates that BTC is now above the bottom but still has room to grow as it is still far from the top.
Puell Multiple Do Bitcoin Source: CryptoQuant
Price Prediction: Possible Rise to $116K?
On the daily chart, the price appears to be following the same path that saw it surpass $73,750 in March. During that period, BTC surged 81.95% in less than three months. Between November 5 and the time of writing, the cryptocurrency has surged 56.58%.
An analysis of the Accumulation/Distribution (A/D) line shows that the reading has increased. This increase indicates notable accumulation over distribution. The Money Flow Index (MFI), which measures the level of capital flows, has also increased.
Bitcoin Daily Analysis. Source: TradingView
If these indicators continue to trend in the same direction, Bitcoin’s price could be above $116,000 by Christmas week. However, if it faces selling pressure before December 25, this may not happen. Instead, it could fall below $100,000.
The article Will Bitcoin Repeat History and Rise on Christmas? Analysis Responds appeared first on BeInCrypto Brazil.
