$BTC Here are my observations and forecast:
Current situation
RSI (Relative Strength Index):
The value of 38.674 indicates oversold conditions in the market. This is a signal for a potential bounce upward if the nearest support level holds.
Stochastic (STOCH):
The high value of 98.816 indicates overbought conditions in shorter time frames. This may lead to a short-term correction downward.
MACD:
The negative value (-410) confirms the existing downtrend, although the signal line is beginning to converge with the MACD, which could be an early signal of a reversal.
ADX (Average Directional Index):
The value of 23.452 indicates weakness in the current trend, which may suggest an imminent consolidation or change in direction.
Support and resistance levels:
Support: $98,809 – a key level that the market must hold to avoid further decline.
Resistance: $105,326 – the nearest level, testing which may signal a return to the uptrend.
My forecast
Short-term scenario:
If the price holds above the $98,809 level, a bounce upwards is likely, aiming to retest $105,326. Given the current RSI and weakness in the trend, this seems probable.
Alternative scenario:
In the event of a breakdown of the support level, the market may move to the next significant level around $95,000. This could be triggered by a strengthening downward movement confirmed by the MACD.
Medium-term outlook:
If the current consolidation ends with an upward breakout, Bitcoin may return to the $110,000 level within a few weeks. However, the weak trend (low ADX) suggests that the market may remain in a sideways range for some time.
Recommendations
For traders:
Entry into positions is possible upon confirmation of a bounce from the support level of $98,809. Set a stop-loss below this level. If the price breaks the resistance at $105,326, this may be a signal for further growth.
For investors:
Keep in mind that the current volatility provides good opportunities for long-term purchases. However, it is advisable to wait for a sustained reversal signal.
I believe the market is currently in a phase of uncertainty, and the nearest movements will depend on the reactions of market participants to key levels. Technical indicators confirm that we are close to a turning point.
