Author: Vance Spencer
Compiled by: Shenchao TechFlow
Macroeconomics
Four countries in the G7 (France, Germany, Canada, and possibly the UK, which may soon rejoin) are experiencing government changes due to budget crises. One of these countries is expected to face a bond auction failure in 2025. By the end of 2025, most G7 countries will be governed by conservative governments.
Trump will establish a new global monetary framework, similar to the Plaza Accord of 1985. This framework will drive a gradual and substantial depreciation of the dollar, promoting the return of manufacturing to the U.S., while directing liquidity towards the U.S. market and high-risk asset markets such as cryptocurrencies.
Inflation is expected to be between 2.5% and 3.3%, and the Federal Reserve will significantly lower interest rates in response to a weak job market.
Major global armed conflicts are expected to end in the first half of 2025, ushering in an optimistic era of peace and security.
United States
The S&P 500 Index (SPX) is expected to rise to 7,500 points, with artificial intelligence (AI) technology delivering on its promises to drive economic growth.
At least one major U.S. city (possibly Chicago) will face a bankruptcy crisis.
Decentralized autonomous government entities (DOGE) will operate with extreme efficiency, saving $2-3 trillion for the federal budget and achieving a 0% fiscal deficit in the U.S. This model will be emulated by other G7 countries and local governments in the U.S.
Against a backdrop of 0% deficit, interest rates in the U.S. will decline significantly.
Trump's approval ratings will set a historical record for U.S. presidents.
Crypto
The inflow of funds into Ethereum (ETH) and Bitcoin (Bitcoin) ETFs will reach the same level in the second half of 2025, with daily average inflows reaching $1 billion each. This trend is mainly driven by the launch of composite ETFs.
The altcoin market will experience a sustained alt season, especially with emerging blockchain ecosystems like Berachain standing out due to high attention.
The combination of gaming and artificial intelligence (AI) will become the vertical with the highest user numbers (MAUs/DAUs), thanks to the significant enhancement of the gaming experience and interaction by AI technology.
Under the influence of Glow and Daylight, the transaction fee revenue of energy decentralization protocols (Energy DePin) will be on par with blue-chip DeFi projects. These protocols leverage blockchain technology to optimize energy distribution and trading.
Memecoins will be segmented into various categories, including transient, AI-driven, factory-produced, and large-cap types, leading to increased market differentiation but still fierce competition.
Total transaction fee revenue from decentralized finance (DeFi) will exceed $10 billion in 2025, while the supply of stablecoins is expected to reach $500 billion by the end of the year.
Assets of large banks are beginning to be tokenized, a trend that will significantly reduce resource waste in the U.S. financial system and enhance efficiency.
Plans for the listing of cryptocurrency ETFs other than Bitcoin and Ethereum will be postponed until 2026.
Culture
An increasing number of people are leaning towards religious beliefs or spiritual pursuits, which may be a response to the pressures of modern society.
As artificial intelligence (AI) begins to automate content creation and programming tasks, top creators on Instagram, TikTok, Twitter, and OnlyFans, as well as software developers, will reach career peaks globally.
Elon Musk will become the world's first trillionaire, benefiting from his successful ventures across multiple industries.
Fetterman will emerge as the clear frontrunner for the Democratic candidate in the 2028 U.S. presidential election, competing against Republican candidate JD Vance.
