The Federal Reserve's speech in the early hours of December 19 was hawkish, indicating that it may only cut interest rates twice next year, and it explicitly stated that this is just a possibility, with specifics to be determined based on changes in inflation data. The market interpreted this as bearish news, but the bearish impact is temporary, typically being digested by the market within 24 - 36 hours.
In the early hours, BTC retraced to around the middle track of the 1-day Bollinger Bands near 100,000. If bearish news emerges, its lowest retracement level is here, which is consistent with last night's prediction. Meanwhile, if ETH breaks below 3,828, it will directly retrace to around 3,660, which was also mentioned yesterday. From a broader informational perspective, we will not consider the two intermediate support levels of 3,772 and 3,742 for now, but these can be referenced as take-profit points during a rebound.
During the day, BTC needs to repair the smaller time frame indicators below 30 minutes, with the resistance level temporarily looking towards 102,300. The support level below 100,000 is 99,200 - 98,800, which is also the bottom buying point from last Sunday, and additional buying can still be done here.
When facing such significant information, the following points must be noted:
1. The ratio of low long position holdings to pending order positions should not exceed 15% of the account funds;
2. For positions with floating profits, a breakeven stop loss should be set immediately to prevent the inability to reach profit targets and to guard against floating profits turning into floating losses due to bearish retracements;
3. When the price falls below the defense point, the position margin should be reduced by 10 - 15%, after which additional buying can be done at lower prices to lower the average cost.
Some investors tend to panic and try to cut losses as soon as their low long positions are slightly underwater, which is actually a poor strategy. It is important to note that many people currently have short positions trapped in the 90,000 - 78,000 range; they have endured for over 40 days, hoping the price will fall to 80,000 or 70,000. In reality, the bullish trend has not yet ended.
