According to the interest rate cut adjustment in the early morning of #加密市场盘整 , it is highly likely that there will be a rise followed by a fall. Personally, I am not optimistic about the subsequent short-term market; a deep washout is needed to reach new highs again, and the best condition for a deep washout would be a black swan event. It has been almost two years since a new black swan event occurred, and my position is only 30% left.
Experienced traders analyze the market from both external and internal perspectives. External refers to hard technical aspects such as patterns, breakout points, and indicators, while internal refers to the feelings of long and short positions in the market.
The market's rise and fall are composed of the forces from both long and short positions. The stronger side dominates the market; when it should fall but doesn't, or should rise but doesn't, this statement is used to describe the changes in long and short forces. To judge which side is stronger, one can look at key price levels and their gains or losses, as well as the overall situation of being at the end of a bear market with no room to fall or at the end of a bull market with no room to rise.
Taking the current situation as an example, the bears spent 150 days from June to November 2022 to break below 18600, even using the negative news from the struggle between two major exchanges to push the market down to nearly 15000. The cost was very high, and it showed the determination of the bears. However, after such a long struggle of 150 days, the bears should have taken advantage of their victory, but instead, they consolidated for 63 days without seeing new lows. It turns out that the bears exhausted their strength. When the bulls broke above 18600, I published that the bear market was over; this point was equivalent to the Nanchang Uprising. The bears no longer had the strength to resist or struggle. In the previous half year, they had already exhausted their power. Retail traders who followed the bears down from 69000 to 15000 began to lose confidence, believing that the value would not decrease much further. They became neutral. When the price broke above 18600, speculators joined the bulls, adding insult to injury to the bears.
Behind this alternating trend of bulls and bears, there are certainly larger driving forces—the main players. The main players are also waiting for the right timing and conditions. The main players are the leaders, willing to attack the first city for the uprising. As long as they capture the 18600 level, which the bears spent a huge cost to seize, it will generate a broader response, and more will join the bulls' camp. The main players are willing to let retail traders benefit because their cost basis is low, but in the future, they will still force this group to give up their profits. They will not allow too many people to ride the wave; future washouts will be discussed later.
Who would have thought that Bitcoin would reach 100,000 in the past two years?
