BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes published a new long article today (Trump Truth), describing how Trump may devalue the dollar after taking office to quickly boost the national economy. Additionally, Hayes stated that the cryptocurrency market may experience a crash before and after Trump takes office. (Background: Arthur Hayes warns: Retail investors are the 'bag holders' of VC tokens; it's time to wake up in this bull market) (Supplementary background: Arthur Hayes: The bull market must remain rational and cash out in time; Bitcoin is expected to reach $250,000 by the end of next year) BitMEX founder and Maelstrom co-founder Arthur Hayes published a new long article today (18th) titled (Trump Truth), describing how the elected President of the United States, Trump, may devalue the dollar after taking office to quickly boost the US economy, but ultimately may lead to the devaluation of major global economies' currencies, triggering a new round of QE and inflation. The following text summarizes the key points of the article for readers: Devaluing the dollar to boost the US economy Arthur Hayes believes that Trump will need to deliver results immediately after taking office as his achievements for the first year in office. Therefore, he speculates that Trump will push for immediate dollar devaluation after taking office. Hayes further stated that Trump has discussed the necessity of weakening the dollar to achieve US economic goals multiple times with the new US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. The question is, against what should the dollar be devalued, and how should the weakening be implemented? In this regard, Hayes stated: Besides the United States, the largest exporters globally are China (currency: Renminbi), the European Union (currency: Euro), the United Kingdom (currency: Pound Sterling), and Japan (currency: Yen). The dollar must devalue against these currencies to encourage companies to relocate production facilities back to the United States. Hayes then stated that since the US cannot unilaterally determine other countries' exchange rates against the dollar and that deceiving other countries into agreeing to dollar devaluation through tariffs would incur significant diplomatic and time costs. Therefore, he proposed a solution with minimal resistance: 'devalue the dollar against gold.' Gold as an implicit tool for the US to adjust exchange rates Hayes then stated that gold has long been recognized as the true currency of global commerce, so the US government can create dollars through legislation and then change the holding cost of gold, using these dollars to purchase goods and services. This is precisely the definition of fiat currency devaluation: Since all other fiat currencies also implicitly contain an exchange ratio relative to the value of gold held by their governments, these currencies will automatically appreciate against the dollar. The US can achieve significant devaluation against its major trading partners' currencies without negotiating with other countries. Hayes added that other countries could theoretically counter the US using the same devaluation method, but they are not global reserve currencies and cannot compete with the dollar, which may lead to severe economic inflation. In this regard, Hayes predicts that the dollar against gold will continue to depreciate in the first half of 2025. Bitcoin will benefit from 'dollar devaluation' Immediately following, Hayes mentioned Bitcoin Strategic Reserve (BSR), stating that the US supports BSR for reasons similar to those for accumulating gold: It allows the US to maintain financial hegemony in both digital and physical realms. If Bitcoin is the toughest currency ever, then the strongest fiat currency will be the country that holds the most Bitcoin in its central bank. Hayes continued to point out that if the US government creates more dollars through 'dollar devaluation against gold' and uses some of that to purchase Bitcoin, it will drive the price of Bitcoin up, further stimulating other countries to rush to buy Bitcoin, which will lead to exponential price increases for Bitcoin. Hayes then stated that although he does not believe the US government will buy Bitcoin, it does not affect his optimistic judgment on Bitcoin's price: Ultimately, the devaluation of gold will create a large amount of dollars, and these dollars will ultimately flow into physical goods, services, and financial assets. We have empirical data showing that Bitcoin's fiat price increases at a much faster rate than the growth of the global dollar supply, due to Bitcoin's limited supply and gradually decreasing circulation supply. It is expected that the cryptocurrency market will crash around January 20. Notably, Arthur Hayes emphasized at the end of the article that before the cryptocurrency bull market enters the 'crack-up boom' phase, the cryptocurrency market will experience a crash around Trump's inauguration date, January 20. In this regard, he stated that his family office, Maelstrom, will reduce positions in advance and repurchase at lower prices afterwards. The 'crack-up boom' refers to a phase where central banks attempt to maintain economic prosperity indefinitely without considering inflation and asset bubbles. However, Arthur Hayes also added: If the bull market lasts until January 20, we will also acknowledge the forecast as incorrect and will buy back to re-enter the cryptocurrency bull market.