Over the years, one of the most common things I’ve noticed among traders, especially those new to cryptocurrency, is the frustration that comes with market downturns. When prices fall, traders lose hope and many question everything they’ve learned. Someone recently commented on my last post saying, “The low season is a lie.” So, is it really a lie, or is there something deeper going on in the market?
Let's break down what's really going on, using what I've learned over the past 5+ years of trading and what I've observed in the market, as well as questions I get from my followers and students.
I am not just another random technical analyst making assumptions, I have spent over 5 years mastering this craft and experience has been my best teacher. Some laughed at my last update, but those who took it seriously saw the results come true just as I predicted.
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Off-season 2021 vs. 2024
In the world of crypto, you often hear this story repeated, and it’s not just a coincidence. It’s the natural flow of market cycles. If you go back to 2021, we saw something really interesting: about 34 weeks after the Bitcoin halving, BTC’s dominance started to decline and altcoins started to rise. This was the beginning of altseason, a time when altcoins started to outperform Bitcoin.
BTC DOMINANCE CHART
Now let's fast forward to 2024. same thing now, 34 weeks after the Bitcoin halving, BTC dominance has started to decline. What's happening now? Same pattern. Yellow lines are the halving date, green line is 34 weeks after the halving.
But now the interesting part: if you look closely at the BTC 1-day dominance chart, you will see that BTC dominance is starting to rise again after 34 weeks. In fact, it could rise another 5-7% before we see a true alt season, the same thing happened in 2021.
BTC dominance chart for 1 day
This tells me that we could be on the verge of something exciting - a possible altcoin season. But if that's the case,
Why are we seeing altcoins losing money now?
The real answer: BTC dominance is not just history!
When we see altcoins falling, it’s easy to conclude that BTC dominance is the main factor. And yes, BTC dominance does play a role, but that’s not all. The real reason lies in market manipulation, especially by whales and market makers. These entities control a large portion of the market and use tactics that can really confuse regular traders. Let me explain in simple terms.
Cryptocurrency bubbles
So, now you might be asking: who are whales and market makers?
Whales: These are individuals or groups that own large amounts of a particular cryptocurrency. They have enough capital to significantly influence the market when they buy or sell.
Market makers: These are entities or institutions that provide liquidity in the market. They make a profit by manipulating price movements and controlling the flow of the market.
Market makers
Now, when we see altcoins losing, it is often because whales and market makers are trying to destroy weak hands - traders who are over-leveraged or inexperienced. They do this by creating artificial sell-offs that cause traders to panic and sell their positions at a loss.
How do whales manipulate the market?
Let's go through it step by step so you really understand the process.
1. Manipulating BTC dominance
When BTC dominance starts to increase, altcoins usually start to lose value. But here’s where the manipulation starts: whales and market makers know that many traders are closely watching BTC dominance. When they see BTC dominance start to increase, it causes panic among altcoin traders. They start to think that the alt season is over and start selling their positions.
2. Whales set their trap
At this point, whales start dumping the market. They sell large volumes of BTC or altcoins, causing prices to drop rapidly. This creates a sense of fear and uncertainty in the market. Traders, especially those with high leverage, are liquidated as their positions are wiped out. Market makers and whales make money from liquidation fees and price drops.
3. The "Cleaning" Phase
After the weak hands are destroyed, whales and market makers now have cheap positions in the market. They can start to push the market up once the selling pressure subsides, causing the price to rise. This often happens in a sharp rise that can trap those who sold their positions in a panic, forcing them to buy back at higher prices.
The truth about the high season
So, let's get back to the main question or comment of the follower: is the altseason a lie?
Subscriber comment
No, it’s not. But that might seem like a lie if you’re caught in one of those market cycles where whales manipulate prices. Just because altcoins are losing money right now doesn’t mean altcoin season is over. In fact, that loss is often the prelude to a massive altcoin rally.
As I have seen in the past, once BTC dominance stabilizes and starts to decline, altcoins tend to take the lead. We are not far from that point in 2024, and I believe we are ready to enter altseason after BTC dominance increases a bit more. This is why it is so important to be patient and stick to your strategy, even when things seem uncertain.
As always, the key to trading success is market understanding and patience. Don't let short-term fluctuations or market manipulation shake your confidence. Stick to your strategy, trust the process, and get ready for the altcoin boom that is coming soon!
What are your thoughts on the altseason? Are you ready to take advantage of the upcoming opportunities? Let us know in the comments below!
