In 2025, there may be a significant tail end of a bull market in the cryptocurrency space, but this is a dangerous process of playing with fire. The madness in the later stages of the bull market is even more confusing, testing human nature; without the wisdom to be content and retreat, and without the determination to cut losses, very few can exit the bull market unscathed.$BTC
Whale tail patterns often choke, and many people are buried in the late stages of a bull market. Remember, those who are content are always happy; keep your principal to start over.
The market is still continuing in the later stages of the bull market, overall fluctuating upwards, maintaining a healthy rhythm of taking three steps forward and one step back, with the top's madness not yet appearing. Today, I symbolically sold a small amount of Bitcoin at 107,000. It’s not that I feel the market has peaked; rather, I want to remind myself that the next phase is about selling at the peak, not buying (I need to break my psychological reluctance to sell during a bull market), and don’t think you can hold everything and sell at the highest point. Gradually liquidate, while withdrawing as you go.$ETH
There are still a lot of positive factors in the cryptocurrency space ahead, and the market will definitely continue for a while. However, markets often turn when a series of good news is being realized or is in the process of being realized, and when everyone is almost fully invested and reluctant to sell, a potential black swan can suddenly strike, causing a sharp drop from above.
This is essentially because the bubble has become untenable in the later stages, and any slight negative news will trigger sensitive individuals to rush to escape, leading to stampedes and larger-scale escapes and stampedes, followed by a comprehensive escape and stampede. This process is somewhat like nuclear fission; once the critical conditions for fission have been met and triggered, traders find it very difficult to exit unscathed in the wave of fission. Therefore, it is better to be a bit clumsy and gradually sell off in advance; even if it means selling slightly early and watching from afar, it's better than being forced to make drastic cuts in the midst of a fission stampede.
Currently, the market feels a bit mundane within its regulation; waiting often wears down people's patience. Instead of being idle and seeking amusement, why not predict potential black swans in this round of the cryptocurrency bull market? Who will become the fuse for nuclear fission in this round of the bull market? The following predictions may ultimately be off-base, but I want to convey that when the bull market continues into the later stages and bubbles accumulate severely, there will definitely be some sudden events that will burst the bubble, leading to a sudden reversal and the arrival of a bear market (except for those with a probability of over 50%, the probability values of the others are arbitrary and only express the magnitude of their possibilities): $SOL
1. After the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates to a certain point, it may interrupt the rate cuts due to inflation rising again or other reasons. Probability: Over 50%
2. (Currently, Bitcoin's market is highly correlated with U.S. stocks) U.S. stocks experience weekly and monthly level corrections, falling more than 20%, lasting over 3 months. Probability: Over 50%
3. A medium or larger financial crisis occurs in Europe and America, leading to liquidity tightening and a significant stock market drop. Probability: Over 30%
3. Trump encounters difficulties in his presidency or experiences setbacks while in office. Probability: 20%
4. When Old Ma implemented radical new policies in the DOGE department (Eastern Factory Efficiency Department), he encountered setbacks. Probability: 15%
5. Geopolitics is likely to see major changes similar to the Russia-Ukraine war, impacting the global financial market. Probability: 10%
No matter when the black swan will penetrate the bull market bubble, in whatever form, my suggestions for the cryptocurrency market in 2025 are as follows:
1. From now on, actively observe indicators and signs of the market reaching its peak.
2. From now until the end of 2025, mainstream coins should primarily be sold and not bought.
3. For portions that have been sold, even if not sold at the highest point, please do not re-enter the market.
4. Quickly reduce leverage (if any), and gradually liquidate Bitcoin before altcoins.
5. When black swans clearly appear in the late stages of the bull market and fission has occurred, if you cannot or are reluctant to liquidate, be sure to immediately exchange all altcoins for Bitcoin to save your life.
You stand in the middle of the water, filling me with fantasies.
You let me enter the water's bottom, my long hair will never get dirty.
This temptation makes me yearn, this song gives me fantasies.
Yet I always look back longingly at the beautiful scenery on the shore.
