Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)

Author | Nan Zhi (@Assassin_Malvo)

Recently launched MOVE and ME have showcased the enthusiasm of the crowd in a bull market and the fierceness of new coins. Looking back, for example, the new coin OL on OKX left a deep impression, as it surged at the opening before a brief pullback and then continued to rise in a 'bulldozer' manner.

Is it true that the strategy for new coins in a bull market is no longer the same, and there is no need to sell early at the opening as before? Odaily will attempt to answer this question by reviewing several new coins launched recently on various exchanges in this article.

Basic situation description

This article selects new coins launched by Binance, OKX, Bybit, and other platforms within the last two months.

  • The simultaneous launch includes MOVE and ME;

  • Binance includes SCR, USUAL (pre-market);

  • OKX includes MAJOR, MORPHO, MEMEFI, OL, and X (in fact, many were launched simultaneously but do not include Binance, etc.);

  • Bybit selected MOZ (Lumoz) and XION.

In terms of time, it has recorded the 5-minute closing price, 1-hour closing price, 24-hour closing price, 7-day closing price, and current price (as of December 16, 15:00 Beijing time) for the above tokens.

Then compare each token's price fluctuation, such as the 1-hour closing price relative to the 5-minute closing price, to determine if it is a 'peak at opening'.

Does the peak at opening still exist?

The price fluctuation data for each token is shown in the figure below. Among them, the closing price for 1 hour has dropped by an average of 14% compared to the 5-minute closing price, while the 24-hour closing price has dropped by an average of 7%.

It can be seen that in the short term, the opening 5 minutes is still a peak, and if tokens can be obtained at that point, it is still recommended to sell.

There are a total of eight tokens that have been online for 7 days, and these tokens have seen a closing price drop of 8.7% compared to the 5-minute closing price over the past 7 days, indicating that the mid-term situation remains unchanged, with the opening still being a peak.

Will the situation change if we extend the time frame?

The current price relative to the 5-minute closing price has an average increase of 25% across 11 tokens, but excluding OL results in an average decrease of 21%, with the decline further expanding.

The opening remains at its peak

In summary, for most tokens, the opening is still likely to be the highest point. The bull market may bring higher opening prices rather than long-term increases. Moreover, one or two months is unlikely to eliminate the overly enthusiastic prices caused by the opening. According to statistical patterns, it is still recommended to choose to sell if tokens can be obtained within 5 minutes.

Estimated price for Binance's new coin VANA

Based on the past 21 periods of Binance Launchpool data, we estimate the price of VANA to be 15.9 USDT, corresponding to an FDV of 1.911 billion USD, with an initial circulating market value of 479 million USD.

The algorithm is: the average annualized return for the past 21 periods is 96%. Assuming this period is also 96%; based on the average amount of BNB invested in the past 21 periods and the BNB price of 726 USDT, we can deduce that to achieve the same annualized return, the price of VANA needs to reach:

16973725 × 726 ÷ 4080000 × 2 ÷ 365 × 96% = 15.93