BlockBeats news, on December 16, Bitfinex released a report stating, 'From the bear market low of $15,487 in November 2022, Bitcoin has increased by over 573%, with a year-to-date price increase of 130%. The current bull market reflects strong institutional demand, primarily driven by ETF and spot accumulation. Historical data indicates that we are in the mid-cycle, with the market likely peaking in the third to fourth quarter of 2025, approximately 450 days after the halving in April 2024.'
Indicators such as MVRV, NUPL, and bull-bear cycle indicators suggest that we are still in a bull market phase, but far from reaching overly optimistic peaks. Pi cycle top and four-year moving average models predict potential cycle top prices between $145,000 and $189,000. Historically, diminishing returns are regulating the explosive gains seen by Bitcoin in previous cycles.
Our view is that any adjustments in 2025 will remain moderate, benefiting from the influx of institutional funds.
Halving effect: Historically, the year following a halving typically sees the strongest rebound.
Cycle target: The estimated minimum price for mid-2025 is $145,000, potentially reaching $200,000 under favorable conditions.
While volatility is expected in the first quarter of 2025, the overall trend points to further price increases, supported by ETF adoption, institutional uptake, and the growing importance of Bitcoin as a global asset. However, investors should remain vigilant for signs of overbuying as Bitcoin approaches the cycle top.
