PANews December 16 news, Bitfinex Alpha's latest report states that Bitcoin has surged over 573% since the bear market low of $15,487 in November 2022, with its price increasing by 130% year-to-date. The current bull market reflects strong institutional demand, dominated by ETF and spot accumulation. Historical data indicates that we are in the mid-cycle, with the market likely peaking around the third to fourth quarter of 2025, approximately 450 days after the halving in April 2024.
Indicators such as MVRV, NUPL, and bull-bear market cycle indicators suggest that we are still in the bull market phase, but have not yet reached the peak. The Pi Cycle top and the 4-year moving average model predict a potential cycle peak between $145,000 and $189,000. From a historical perspective, diminishing returns are moderating the explosive growth of BTC seen in previous cycles. The report believes that any adjustments in 2025 will remain mild due to institutional capital inflow; historically, the year following a halving tends to see the strongest rebounds; cycle target: by mid-2025, the minimum price estimate is $145,000, and under favorable conditions, this price could rise to $200,000.
