Bitcoin (BTC) starts the week before Christmas with unprecedented price peaks and soaring BTC price targets.
This week is forecasted to be a "big week" for Bitcoin and cryptocurrency as price discovery returns right before the TradFi trading week begins.
BTC price targets include $140,000 and even higher in the coming weeks and months.
The Fed is expected to cut rates by 0.25% in a new supportive move for crypto and risk assets.
President-elect Donald Trump seems more determined than ever to make a strategic Bitcoin reserve a reality.
Bitcoin's open interest has reached unprecedented levels, but the funding rate remains manageable.
Bitcoin traders prepare for a volatile week.
Bitcoin is creating excitement everywhere as the new week begins — unprecedented new price peaks are within reach, even with the participation of institutions or TradFi traders.
At the close of the last week, reaching an all-time high, BTC/USD surged to $106,533 on Bitstamp — a new record, according to confirmations from TinTucBitcoin and TradingView data.
1-hour BTC/USD chart. Source: TinTucBitcoin/TradingView.
For market participants, the outlook could hardly be better.
"It's going to be a big week," Filbfilb, co-founder of the trading platform DecenTrader, summarized in a post on X, using a phrase that has stuck with the crypto industry.
Some remain surprised when the peak occurs. Traditional Bitcoin often trades sideways or down in the days leading up to the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions.
"The short liquidation target has been reached," famous trader CrypNuevo wrote in one of his latest market updates.
"I can't believe how fast this is happening, especially before the weekly candle closes, so we can't place a position in futures this time."
Crypto liquidations (screenshot). Source: CoinGlass
Data from monitoring source CoinGlass shows that crypto liquidations in the last 24 hours at the time of writing amount to over $300 million.
See also: Explore Wrapped Bitcoin: Review wBTC, cbBTC, tBTC.
Upload long-term analysis on X, while Keith Alan, co-founder of the trading resource Material Indicators, believes the current moment is more critical than ever. Mid-December, according to the chart, often contains key directional moves for Bitcoin.
"Historically, we have seen MACRO moves on the Bitcoin chart at or around December 17. If this pattern continues, I am looking for one of two moves. Either a breakout indicating a peak has been reached, or a breakout to the next step," he commented.
"With a Fed rate cut being factored in for the meeting on December 18, I think we will see a breakout, however, I will sit tight and let the candles develop for clearer recognition."
1-day BTC/USDT chart. Source: Keith Alan/X
BTC price target sees a 50% increase.
The BTC price target is far from neutral, even in the short term, as traders raise expectations for BTC price performance by year-end and beyond.
Just last week, $110,000 was a popular round target, but over time, levels have remained even higher.
In a dedicated X thread on December 15, prominent analysis account Bitcoindata21 called $140,000 the "base case scenario" for Bitcoin's first major cooldown phase.
"Bitcoin tends to aim for $140,000+ by mid-January for a short-term peak," it confirms.
"My on-chain indicator (the orange line above) is currently at $128,693 and increasing by $500 each day, so it will reach $140,000 by early January. Combine that with the blue pi cycle line, in the same region."
BTC/USD chart with targeted resistance levels. Source: Bitcoindata21/X
Bitcoindata21 points out several indicators that should all reach classic "peak" zones simultaneously, which are equivalent to the $140,000 target.
Bitcoin's market value to realized value (MVRV) ratio — which has been in the spotlight — still has room to grow before profits from long-held coins become unusually large.
See also: Texas bill pushes for strategic Bitcoin reserve fund.
Bitcoin's MVRV deviation levels. Source: Bitcoindata21/X
Other sources suggest $150,000 is a helpful guide in the coming months.
Fed rate cuts predicted as the 2025 outlook darkens.
The Fed is in the spotlight more than ever this week as officials meet to decide on interest rate changes.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will meet on December 18 and is widely expected to implement a 0.25% rate cut.
Inflation data remains an issue for the Fed, with weak labor combined with some price indicators exceeding forecasts — which could create an environment called "stagflation."
"Both Fed inflation measures and market perceptions are currently above the Fed's 2% target," trading source The Kobeissi Letter wrote in part of a thread on X about this topic.
"We risk facing a 1970s-style inflation recovery that could occur in 2025/2026."
Kobeissi reports the latest findings from asset management Apollo, a company warning that the Fed might begin raising rates again in 2025.
"This week, the Fed will reduce rates by another 25 basis points due to weak labor forces," Kobeissi continued.
"We believe that stagflation is coming in 2025, the Fed's biggest nightmare."
The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index, considered the Fed's "preferred" inflation gauge, is expected to be released after the FOMC meeting on December 20, along with initial jobless claims to be released the day before.
Data from CME Group's FedWatch Tool on December 16 indicates an almost unanimous market consensus for a 0.25% cut — 97.1%.
Fed target interest rate probability. Source: CME Group
The discussion about Trump's Bitcoin reserves is growing larger.
The most discussed topic in the third week of December is not the new BTC price peaks but how much higher Bitcoin can go.
Thanks to new reports suggesting President-elect Donald Trump plans to create a form of national Bitcoin reserve, the market frenzy is running strong — along with soaring BTC price predictions.
See also: Bitcoin could drop 20% if tied to M2 money supply.
As TinTucBitcoin reported, a move into Bitcoin could even begin on the first day Trump takes office next month.
"There is potential to use an executive order on the first day to buy Bitcoin," Jack Mallers, CEO of Bitcoin payment company Strike, told podcast host Tim Pool in an appearance on December 14.
"It won't have the size and scale of 1 million coins but will be a significant position."
On the same day, Forbes released a prediction showing BTC/USD above $500,000 thanks to Trump's potential large-scale plans.
"We will do something great with crypto because we don’t want China or any other country — not just China but other countries are adopting it and we want to maintain a leading position," he told CNBC in an interview last week, which has popped up multiple times on social media.
Besides Trump, Michael Saylor, CEO of business analytics firm MicroStrategy, stirred up excitement over the weekend by hinting he has bought more BTC for his company's Bitcoin reserve.
Source: Michael Saylor
"I will meet you on the moon," he wrote in a casual post on X afterward.
Saylor has made several BTC purchases in recent weeks, with the market initially selling off and then recovering.
Open interest hits record highs while funding remains cool.
Bitcoin's open interest has reached unprecedented levels as the market returns to price discovery.
Data from CoinGlass shows that the total open interest in Bitcoin futures contracts as of December 16 is $67.38 billion — an increase of $4 billion in the last 24 hours.
OI Bitcoin futures contracts on the exchange (screenshot). Source: CoinGlass.
Open interest represents the total combined value held in Bitcoin futures contracts, aggregating all long and short positions.
The surge in open interest could cause heightened market volatility as traders bet bigger on price movements and see their positions lose out when the market moves against them.
CoinGlass also shows that the funding rate is only slightly high for Bitcoin and other coins, with the largest global exchange Binance being a notable exception. For renowned trader Jelle, the situation remains stable.
"The funding rate is still very healthy. No one on my network seems to care," he told his X followers on December 16, referring to the overall lack of attention given to conditions that are still much cooler than many previous price moves.
"Certainly, this will go much higher than many predict."
Crypto funding rate (screenshot). Source: CoinGlass