Written by: Nan Zhi, Odaily Planet Daily
Recently launched MOVE and ME have showcased the enthusiasm of the crowd and the ferocity of new coins in a bull market. Looking back, for example, the new coin OL on OKX left a deep impression, as it surged high at the opening, briefly corrected, and then continued to rise in a 'bulldozer' style.
So, does the strategy for new coins change under bullish market conditions, and is it no longer necessary to sell early at the opening? Odaily will review recent new coin launches on several exchanges to attempt to answer this question.
Basic situation description
This article selects new coins launched on Binance, OKX, Bybit, and across the entire network within the last two months.
New launches across the entire network include MOVE and ME;
Binance includes SCR and USUAL (pre-market);
OKX includes MAJOR, MORPHO, MEMEFI, OL, and X (in fact, many launched simultaneously but do not include Binance, etc.);
Bybit selected MOZ (Lumoz) and XION.
In terms of time, the closing prices of the above tokens were recorded at 5 minutes, 1 hour, 24 hours, 7 days, and the current price (as of December 16, 3 PM Beijing time).
Then compare the price changes of each token, such as the 1-hour closing price relative to the 5-minute closing price, to determine whether it is 'the high point at the opening.'
Does the high point at the opening still exist?
The price change data for each token is shown in the figure below. Among them, the average drop of the 1-hour closing price compared to the 5-minute closing price is 14%, while the average drop of the 24-hour closing price is 7%.
It can be seen that in the short term, the opening price after 5 minutes is still the high point. If tokens can be obtained within that time frame, it is still recommended to sell.
There are a total of eight tokens that have been online for 7 days, and these tokens saw a closing price drop of 8.7% compared to the closing price after 5 minutes, indicating that the mid-term situation remains unchanged, and the opening is still the high point.
Will extending the time frame lead to different results?
The average price increase of 11 tokens relative to the 5-minute closing price has reached 25%, but excluding OL, it turns into an average drop of 21%, with the decline further widening.
The opening price is still the peak.
In summary, for most tokens, the opening price is still likely to be the highest point. A bullish market may bring a higher opening price, rather than a long-term increase. Additionally, one or two months may not be enough to eliminate the excessively high prices caused by overheated opening sentiments. According to statistical patterns, it is still recommended to sell if tokens can be obtained within 5 minutes.
Price estimate for Binance's new coin VANA
Based on the past 21 periods of Binance Launchpool data, we estimate VANA's price to be 15.9 USDT, corresponding to an FDV of 1.911 billion USD, and an initial circulating market cap of 479 million USD.
Its algorithm is: the average annualized return over the past 21 periods is 96%. Assuming this period also has 96%; then based on the average amount of BNB invested over the past 21 periods and the BNB price of 726 USDT, we can determine that to achieve the same annualized return, VANA's price needs to reach:
16973725 × 726 ÷ 4080000 × 2 ÷ 365 × 96% = 15.93
