Good afternoon, brothers and sisters. Today is already week one, and a new week begins. Bitcoin has once again broken its historical high. If the spot market continues to strengthen in the following days, there’s a high probability it will catch up and surge. Keep pushing!! The time until the New Year is getting closer; let’s work harder to accumulate some more supplies. After the New Year, it will just be half a year of a bull market!
Waking up in the morning, I see that Bitcoin has reached a new high, directly soaring to around 106650. It remains so strong, truly a bull market that doesn’t say the top. As long as there's no pressure above and volume-price involvement, there will continue to be new highs. Watch the key points of 102000-100000 below and 110000 above.
Ethereum has reached this very critical resistance level again, and the probability of breaking through this position seems not that high this time.
Although Ethereum has risen to around 4000 following Bitcoin, the ETH/BTC exchange rate hasn't increased and hasn't broken through the key level of 0.04. It still needs time to verify.
I still hope that Ethereum's strong period can arrive soon, and altcoins can also follow suit for a good surge. Watch 4100 above for Ethereum and 3850-3750 below.
Bitcoin's CME futures saw a rapid increase today, and another small gap has appeared below, corresponding to the price of 103600-102400. Let’s see if this small gap will be filled in the short term. If it’s not filled in the short term, it’s expected to be filled along with the next pullback.
The gap near 81000 has been persistent for over a month and currently shows no signs of being filled. However, the higher Bitcoin goes, the more severe the top formation will be! Don't get too greedy with decent swing spaces!
Returning to the main topic:
As mentioned before, after Bitcoin breaks the 100k mark, it purely transforms the expectations of market changes. However, the sentiment has remained high, and good news has come one after another, creating the current strong situation, which also aligns with the performance of a bull market!
Now let's talk about the upcoming plans and expectations:
Firstly, regarding the CME futures, Qiuzi feels that a pullback to fill the gap is inevitable. This wave has already had a gap for over a month without being filled. Now another small gap has appeared below. If this leads to a pullback and continues to weaken, forming a top, then there’s a high probability it will fill the gap at 81000. Just wait for time to develop!
Another point is the issue of swing arbitrage traders. This has been mentioned several times before. With this wave of upward momentum, the swing space has already been quite good. Moreover, there hasn't been any significant panic selling up until now. Everyone seems to have a tacit understanding to wait for a high point to emerge. Of course, many people have already begun to sell in batches, but since the market sentiment and liquidity are currently sufficient, this selling pressure will quickly be absorbed by the market, so there hasn't been a noticeable recession. Even when Bitcoin dropped more than ten thousand dollars overnight, it was still aimed at liquidation, and the spot market was quickly recovered.
Furthermore, there's the issue of continuous inflow into ETFs. With so many people buying and making profits, who exactly is losing in this market? To give a simple example, when the price consensus is high, no one is willing to sell. But once news triggers a decline, it's a fast-paced game of running away. If it hasn't been converted into stable assets, it's just a string of numbers, even if that number looks extravagant. So one can imagine that when the subsequent wave of selling weakens, it will continue to experience downward trends and recession. When the market has been washed out enough, the next upward trend will begin!
There's also the issue mentioned earlier about the year-end washout. Firstly, the recent pullback has been a drop. With Christmas and the New Year approaching overseas, a lot of liquidity has seen varying degrees of outflow. Although it has quickly been taken over by the market, Qiuzi feels that this group of people is quite wise.
I've always said that there’s never a lack of opportunities in the circle. Even if you miss this wave, there will be other opportunities in the next wave! And when the opportunity comes, you must seize it; otherwise, even the best opportunities will drift away!
Another crucial point: The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision will be announced the day after tomorrow on December 19. This is also the last interest rate announcement of the year. This time, the expected rate cut is also at 25 basis points. After the data is released, with the FOMO sentiment driving it, Qiuzi feels that this wave of market conditions will likely form a short-term top. If this judgment is correct, the downward space will also be very considerable!
After all, the increase this month has been quite good. From the market sentiment and the calculations of the big players, it seems that the emotions brought by interest rate cuts have already been largely digested in advance. At such a high position, very few are building positions to chase highs, and those who do are mostly doing short-term trades. Long-term holders are very few in this position when building their positions.
All of Qiuzi's expected plans are pretty much the same. Around the time of interest rate cuts, it's about time to start preparing for the next operations. Specific layouts and operations will be flexibly responded to based on future trends!
If the judgment is correct, it will lead the brothers to eat well. If the judgment is incorrect and continues to rise, it will also be controlled within a very small range. The difference is not negligible when comparing profit and loss!
Regarding the spot market, I've been reminding everyone to liquidate in batches. Now many brothers also have some 'bullets' in hand. However, in recent shares, some have been trapped. But those who have replenished their positions haven't been trapped too much, and some with decent space are moving quickly. Just be flexible in operations; it’s not like before where you could just hold on. Now the market’s fluctuations are very fast, so decent swing trades are also quite good. Plus, given Bitcoin's current position, there's no need to be overly cautious!
In the end, it’s still that saying; it’s the end of the year. If you don’t accumulate resources and stock up for a prosperous year, then this year will come to an end. Truly good market conditions won’t last long; if you can’t grab the opportunity, you’ll have to wait another four years!
Finally, data is shared without needing to ask anyone. All data is just a sharing. The starting point is good, but it cannot guarantee that every result is good. Treat it rationally!
△ Risk Warning:
The price of digital assets is highly volatile, and the risks of investing in digital assets are very high.
Please be aware of investment risks, invest rationally, and take responsibility for your profits and losses.