The cryptocurrency market is still dominated by Bitcoin's trend. Recently, Bitcoin has maintained a fluctuating upward trend over the weekend, showing signs of high-level consolidation. Most mainstream cryptocurrencies have performed weaker than Bitcoin.
The next focus is how BTC, which has already broken new highs, will react after the US stock market opens tonight. Hopefully, the US stock market can bring significant ETF purchases, avoiding a big sell-off and maintaining good sentiment.
Currently, BTC is at the 105000 position. If I were to predict whether it will reach 110000 first or pull back to around 100000, I lean towards the latter. However, even after a pullback, BTC still has the potential to break the previous high again. The current market feels like it is tormenting contract funds, with the side with more capital often being harvested.
The biggest event this week is the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting. A 25 basis point rate cut is almost a given, and the key lies in Powell's speech, which may stimulate market sentiment. It is expected that Japan will not raise interest rates this month. Therefore, the future market direction, especially as Christmas approaches, is worth paying attention to.
If this new high is seen as the beginning of a new round of upward movement, there are two possibilities:
1. Similar to the previous round of small pushes.
2. The previous round of increases was the first wave, while the increase starting from 100609 is the first round of the third wave.
Further judgment needs to be made based on the performance after the US stock market opens tonight.
However, in any case, trading should follow the principle of 'following the trend primarily, predicting secondarily.' As long as Bitcoin continues to rise strongly, the overall market in the cryptocurrency sector will be favorable, and there will be opportunities in the altcoin market when Bitcoin is strong.
Regarding the risks of Christmas:
Christmas is an important holiday in the West, and year-end settlements will affect market liquidity. After the US stock market closes, the liquidity of BTC may be affected. If BTC falls, altcoins may face significant pressure. Therefore, around Christmas, capital outflows may lead to a lackluster short-term market, and this sentiment usually lasts until New Year's Day.
Nevertheless, the long-term upward trend will not change. With Trump's re-election and the new SEC chairman taking office, the market's upward momentum is expected to continue, and new upward opportunities may arise in January-February 2025. At that time, if Bitcoin continues to maintain strong momentum, especially with Ethereum making gains, altcoins may experience a rise similar to early this year.
Regarding altcoins:
From a broader perspective, the current market movement is very similar to last October, and the reference value of historical candlesticks is high. The altcoin market often rises in turn with Bitcoin's strength, especially in a strongly stimulating market environment. After the AI boom, we may see a resurgence of strong altcoins like HBAR, ADA, RSR.
The meme sector may continue to strengthen, with currencies like Pepe, Pnut, Doge still having opportunities. Trump-related currencies, such as Ena, Link, Aave, Ens, remain strong. However, other sectors related to the Sui chain and others have yet to see breakthroughs, and the overall altcoin market may have to wait for Ethereum to break through $4000 before there are changes.
In summary, the market is still unstable now, and spot trading needs to be cautious. If you want greater returns, you might consider trying your luck in the primary market.
