The crypto market mainly still looks at BTC's performance. This weekend, Bitcoin has primarily been moving upwards, showing signs of consolidation at high levels. Most mainstream trends are weaker than BTC, and as Bitcoin approaches the previous high, it seems it could break it at any moment; indeed, it broke the historical high again this morning.
I don't know how BTC, which has already reached a new high, will respond to the positive news after the US stock market opens tonight. I hope there will be significant buying due to ETFs, meaning don't dump BTC, and that sentiment remains strong.
Now at this position of 105000, if you ask me whether we will reach 11 first or return to around 10, I might lean toward the latter. However, after a pullback, there is still a possibility of breaking the previous high again. Right now, funds are being tested; as soon as a significant amount of capital comes in, it will be guided to harvest.
Then this week only remains the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting. A 25 basis point cut is basically a certainty, with only Powell's speech possibly stimulating the market to speculate on new sentiments. Japan should not raise interest rates this month. So especially the direction of the market in the coming days is crucial, given that Christmas is just around the corner.
If we consider this new high as the beginning of a new round of increases, there are two possibilities:
The first possibility is a small push at the same level as the last round of increases;
The second possibility is that the last round of increases constitutes the first wave, and the increase starting from 100609 is the first round of the third wave; we need to observe the performance after the US stock market opens tonight to make a judgment.
The above analysis is a prediction, but: "Trading should primarily follow the market and use predictions as a secondary reference";
Whether BTC surges violently or rises steadily, as long as BTC remains strong and doesn't drop, it will be good days for the entire crypto market, and opportunities in the altcoin market will emerge during BTC's strong periods.
Rational FOMO! Beware of the Christmas heist!
Speaking of Christmas: If BTC and ETH can continue to rise after the US stock market opens this week, then altcoins may still have potential. The main issue is that ETH is not performing well, and many altcoins are not breaking out strongly.
If BTC and ETH cannot continue to rise after the US stock market opens this week, then altcoins may not look good, especially with Christmas next week.
It's not that the market will definitely drop at Christmas; the main concern is that Christmas poses a risk:
Christmas is a very important holiday in the West, with many settlements at year-end. Since the US stock market will be closed, the lack of market makers for BTC may lead to uncertainty; if BTC drops, then altcoins may look bad.
So there has indeed been some capital outflow recently, causing a dull market in the short term. According to past patterns, the market usually bottoms out around Christmas. This sentiment continues until after New Year's Day. Therefore, controlling one's position and deciding what to hold to maximize profits must be chosen carefully.
Of course, regardless of the situation, it will not affect the upward trend:
After New Year's Day, with Trump officially taking office and the new SEC chairman, a new increase is definitely expected to continue, as long as there are no economic recession or unemployment issues. At least we can look forward to February 2025. At that time, if we want altcoins to see several times the increase like earlier this year, BTC needs to maintain FOMO sentiment, especially with ETH gaining momentum.