Let's review Bitcoin's bull market from a historical perspective. You will find that Bitcoin's price movement has a clear 'cyclicality,' especially with a cycle of about four years. In each cycle, Bitcoin experiences a process of price increase, correction, and then another increase. For instance, the bull market from October 2020 to October 2021 is very typical, during which there was also a 50% significant drop.
In the picture above, I started drawing at the beginning of the bull market in October 2021, drawing until the first peak of the bull market for one cycle line period (one vertical line grid). We can also see that the price during the 2021 bull market reached its peak exactly in the second cycle line vertical grid, randomly initiating a new round of bear market.
We can take the time cycle of the 2020 bull market and shift it to 2024 to see if the current market is operating according to a similar time cycle. Through this method, we can predict that Bitcoin may welcome its first peak in 2025 (based on historical data, this time point is around February 9, 2025).
February 9, 2025, is also the twelfth day of the lunar new year. Although history does not repeat, everyone in the crypto circle should pay attention to risk management during the Spring Festival. Don't let someone steal your home~
At the beginning of 2024, I told many friends that I expected it to reach 80,000 by the end of the year. As a result, by September, all the data was good, and I said it might reach $100,000~ and it really did! Praise me~
Next, let's take a look at this wave of the bull market in 2024. The current price of Bitcoin is already close to $105,000, but it has not yet reached the first peak. According to the time cycle line calculation, around February 9, 2025, we may see a price peak—this is the first peak of the bull market.
But you might ask: If the price reaches its peak, will it experience a significant correction like in 2021? In 2021, the price fell from $64,000 to $29,000, a drop of 50%. Will this happen again?
Although history may not necessarily repeat itself, if we look at the timeline, corrections during a bull market are still possible. How much can the price rise after a correction? No one can give a definitive answer to this question, but based on historical experience, prices generally rise again after a correction.
Additionally, we should note that the bull market cycle is not fixed. During this cycle, we see that Bitcoin's price has more room for upward movement, meaning that the bull market is likely to continue until around August 2025, or even further.
In addition to the time cycle line, we can also analyze the progress of the bull market through some blockchain indicators. For example, the MVRV ratio, which is an indicator that measures the relationship between Bitcoin's market capitalization and its actual trading value. According to Grayscale research, the current MVRV ratio is 2.6, indicating that the market may still be in the mid-stage of the bull market, with more upward potential in the future. Additionally, on-chain liquidity for Bitcoin is also very important. On-chain liquidity refers to the activity level of circulating Bitcoin. In the past four bull markets, this indicator has exceeded 60% at least. Currently, it is about 54%, which also means that as more funds flow into the market, Bitcoin's price may continue to rise.
Of course, we cannot ignore the impact of Bitcoin miners. The behavior of miners reflects the overall health of the market. If the total value held by miners reaches a certain level, the price may begin to decline. However, the current market value of miners is about 6 times the thermal cap, which is lower than historical peaks, indicating that we are still some distance from the market top.
In addition to Bitcoin itself, the performance of altcoins can also give us some insights. In the later stages of the bull market, Bitcoin's market dominance usually declines. Now, we have already seen a downward trend in Bitcoin's dominance, indicating that other cryptocurrencies may start to strengthen. For example, there has recently been a significant change in the funding rates of Bitcoin and altcoins. A rise in funding rates means that there is a lot of leveraged capital chasing price increases in the market. This phenomenon also aligns with the characteristics of the later stages of a bull market, so we need to be wary of possible market fluctuations.
After rambling so much, let's summarize:
Bitcoin is currently still in the mid-stage of the bull market, and the price may continue to rise until around August 2025.
Of course, the market is very volatile, and we cannot completely rely on historical data to predict the future. However, from the current trend, 2025 may be an important node. Therefore, it is very important for cryptocurrency investors to manage risks well. Although we cannot predict how high the price will go, historical patterns and current market signals can help us formulate more reasonable investment strategies.
We cannot predict the direction of the price, but we can wait for it on its inevitable path.
Thank you to the friends who saw this, love you all ❤️
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