According to TechFlow, on December 16, Decrypt reported that according to CME Fed observation data, the market generally expects the Fed to announce a 25 basis point interest rate cut to the 4.25%-4.50% range at this week's FOMC meeting, which is the second interest rate cut since November. The current expected probability is as high as 93.4%. Luis Buenaventura, head of GCash cryptocurrency, said that since the expectation of interest rate cuts has been digested by the market in advance, the direct impact of this policy adjustment on cryptocurrency prices will be relatively limited.
Historical data shows that when Bitcoin rises 50% within 60 days, there is about a two-thirds probability of achieving an additional 35% increase in the next two months. Neal Wen, head of global business development at Kronos Research, added that in a low-interest environment, institutional investors tend to use crypto assets as an alternative to traditional investments. Min Jung, research analyst at Presto Labs, pointed out that the market focus has shifted to the content of Fed Chairman Powell's policy speech and the latest economic forecast dot plot, which will provide important guidance for the direction of monetary policy in 2025.