As early as September 26, 2023, I made an assessment of the peak of this BTC bull market—
“Let me give you a sneak peek into my judgment about the peak of the next bull market, there is a considerable probability that it will reach $150,000.”
At that time, the price of Bitcoin was $26,245. Back then, ordinary people basically thought I was crazy when they heard that.
But to this day, Bitcoin has firmly reached $100,000, with market predictions for peaks of $200,000 and even $500,000 appearing.
In principle, topping out is a technical skill; to be more rigorous, you need to assess as you go, and sometimes you even have to be at the top for a while before the signals of volume, price, and market sentiment indicating a peak appear.
The reason I'm discussing this topic today is that quite a few people regularly and persistently ask me where we are in this bull market; how high can BTC go?
Based on the information available so far and my decade of watching the market, the key point is to assess the pace of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts; Bitcoin's bull market has likely progressed about two-thirds of the way, and $150,000 is a point that has a relatively high probability of being reached, but whether it can go higher remains to be seen.
The map is for entertainment purposes only.
To be frank, once we approach or exceed $150,000, or if the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts are nearing their end, regardless of whether Bitcoin continues to rise at that time, I will strictly adhere to my trading discipline and begin to withdraw; planting in spring, harvesting in autumn, storing in winter—trading must align with the trends of the world.
Indeed, the crypto industry is the best industry, a fertile ground where exciting and sleepless scenarios of getting rich emerge daily. However, one must remain calm, leave the dreams to the inexperienced, and strictly follow the rules and cycles to make deterministic trades, securing certain profits without being greedy for the last bit.
Of course, a huge positive factor in this round is Trump's election, as the US begins to leverage cryptocurrencies to consolidate financial hegemony from a new angle; blockchain is expected to see large-scale applications, and Financial 2.0 is on the horizon.
The so-called establishment of Bitcoin strategic reserves aims to alleviate the debt burden; in plain language, it means preemptively positioning to control the upstream and downstream industrial chain, with the US government stepping in to trade cryptocurrencies for profit, using its first-mover advantage and existing financial dominance to force other countries to follow suit.
There may be an energy behind it that excites every participant in the crypto space to the point of sleeplessness.
But this is also a dangerous aspect; you can have the wildest dreams, but you must also have the most sober trading plans.
As long as you're alive, there are always opportunities in the crypto market; what's taboo is being impulsive and losing all your chips in a rash gamble.
In the next article, I will analyze the progress of altcoins in this bull market; I can give you a spoiler: the progress of ALT is approximately 20%.
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