Personal Comprehensive View on DeFi Protocols
1. Lending Protocols
1. AAVE: Undoubtedly the most robust option in the lending space. Compared to the previous cycle, its fundamentals have made a qualitative leap, with a more mature and complete risk control system, capital pool size, and ecological expansion. In the last bull market, it reached around 500, and given the current situation, it is very likely to reach a new all-time high (ATH). Compared to other similar lending protocols, its valuation advantage is prominent, offering exceptional cost-effectiveness, making it the preferred choice for long-term value investment, providing investors with stable return expectations and risk protection.
2. MORPHO: As a rising star, its potential cannot be underestimated. However, currently, when competing directly with AAVE, its cost-effectiveness is slightly inferior. Investing in it is more like a gamble on future growth, betting on whether its unique business model or emerging market strategy can break through in the fiercely competitive lending track. Short-term returns may be highly volatile, but once it grows, the returns may also be quite substantial.
2. DEX
1. ve(3,3) model (e.g., AERO): From a research perspective, this type of model has unique mechanisms, but in practice, it is difficult to hide its flaws. It relies on siphoning new projects to maintain operation, which is essentially akin to a Ponzi stack. This short-sighted approach is destined to go against the vision of large-scale mainstream applications, making it difficult to gain recognition from the traditional financial system and mainstream users, limiting long-term development and posing high investment risks with questionable sustainability.
2. UNI: Technological innovation is noteworthy, such as the idea of using Uni for node sharing fees and MEV revenue sharing in the Unichain concept, which is quite attractive. Looking at the price trend, given the limited remaining window of the bull market and factors such as previous gains being digested and increased market competition, the difficulty of achieving a new all-time high (ATH) in this round of adjustments is quite high. It is more suitable for conservative investors to buy low and hold long-term for dividend-like returns, rather than simply betting on price surges.
3. CRV: The TVL data has significantly declined compared to the previous cycle, and the key now is whether it can align with the main thread of this cycle—deeply embedding into large-scale RWA and stablecoin settlement scenarios. If there is an intention to layout, following the price fluctuation rules of CRV and accurately ambushing downstream related assets is a better strategy, as it can take advantage of potential industry tailwinds while diversifying CRV's own volatility risks, improving investment odds.
3. IRS Interest Rate Swaps
1. Pendle: Its position as the leader in the IRS track is solid, having successfully embedded itself into the DeFi infrastructure landscape. However, the downside is that the price is highly volatile, and the chip distribution is concentrated, with short-term trends resembling a roller coaster. The countermeasure is to adopt a DCA (Dollar-Cost Averaging) strategy to gradually build positions, smoothing out volatility costs. The advantages lie in seamless team collaboration, without obvious shortcomings, and the product experience compared to competitors (like spectra_finance) is considered a dimensional reduction strike. This comprehensive advantage lays the foundation for its long-term development and is expected to continue leading in the interest rate swap field, with long-term returns worth looking forward to.
4. Perpetual DEX
1. HYPE: Currently, the hype is off the charts, yet it is difficult to enter personal investment 'sight'. The main reason is the high valuation, far exceeding personal psychological expectations, with a serious imbalance in cost-effectiveness, and rash entry may lead to high-position flipping, bearing immense drawdown pressure.
2. Common Issues in the Track: The mainstream model divides into LP + Trader counterparties (like GMX) and order books of quasi-centralized exchanges (like dYdX), with variants incorporating leveraged perpetual contract plays. However, the overall track is deeply mired in difficulties, with the core contradiction being the difficulty in capturing long-tail assets. To break through, various projects can only engage in vicious competition on rates and user experience or hope for airdrop marketing to achieve short-term growth. The true innovative incremental scarcity stemming from the essence of the product and technological core limits the ceiling height of the track, and investments must be approached with caution, digging deep into projects with differentiated competitive advantages.
5. Stablecoins
1. ENA: Undoubtedly a model of DeFi innovation this round, with clever product design, unlocking new ways for low-risk preference groups in the crypto space to earn funding rate returns, inspiring industry creativity, spawning many imitators, and promoting Lego-style innovation in DeFi. The hidden danger lies in the model's ease of replication, with thin technological barriers, and whether it can build a moat through business development (BD) capabilities to cross the threshold of large-scale popularity and solidify its position in the industry remains uncertain. Investment decisions must balance short-term returns with the evolution of long-term competitive landscapes.
2. USUAL: The token economics is mired in a Ponzi-like quagmire, with underlying returns based on RWA, surrounded by high-yield competitors such as USD0++ (yield reaching 30%), relying on incremental funds to continue. The way out is similar to Ena, relying on the BD team to expand and increase the protocol's application frequency in diverse DeFi and CEX scenarios, diluting bubble risks. However, its previous high valuation and business uncertainty require a careful weighing of investment risk-reward ratios, being wary of bubble burst risks.