On the 12th, the European Central Bank lowered interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, marking the fourth rate cut this year, bringing the deposit rate down by 25 basis points to 3%, while removing the language about maintaining "restrictive" rates, thus opening the door for further rate cuts next year. On the 12th, the Swiss National Bank unexpectedly cut rates significantly by 50 basis points, with the market expecting a 25 basis point cut. On the 11th, the Bank of Canada cut rates by 50 basis points. The Fed's counterparts have all turned dovish, adding expectations for rate cuts next year in their statements.
Back to the topic:
CNBC reported that Texas State Representative Giovanni Capriglione announced a proposal for legislation to establish a BTC strategic reserve, which will serve as a pilot program for the U.S. Treasury. The proposed bill would allow the state to begin building a strategic BTC reserve, receiving tax revenues, fees, and donations in BTC, which would be held for at least five years. The bill aims to provide a pathway to strengthen U.S. fiscal stability and make it a leader in BTC innovation. Arkansas Congressman French Hill leads three other competitors to win the position of head of the U.S. Financial Services Committee. French Hill is a cryptocurrency supporter and stated in a July interview on the Unchained podcast that "stablecoin and market structure legislation" would be the two bills he most wants to pass after taking office. CoinShares research reported that the average cash mining cost of publicly listed mining companies for BTC rose to $55,950 in the third quarter, a 13% increase from $49,500 in the second quarter. If non-cash costs such as depreciation and stock-based compensation are included, the average mining cost would reach $106,000. The U.S. publicly listed company Exodus Movement announced that it holds over 1,900 BTC and more than 2,660 ETH. Greekslive researcher Adam stated that this week's market is primarily focused on adjustments, and the trading heat in Europe and the U.S. during Christmas has always declined significantly in previous years. This year, the impact of U.S. stock markets on cryptocurrency is rising, and this phenomenon may become more pronounced. Data from the options market in the past two cycles has consistently shown that market makers are relatively cautious. CNBC reporter Jim Cramer asked Trump during a television interview, "Are you still embracing cryptocurrencies and considering establishing a BTC strategic reserve in the crypto field?" Trump responded, "I think so; we want to do great things with cryptocurrencies. Other countries are embracing it, and we want to be leaders."
Sygnum Bank stated in its (2025 Cryptocurrency Market Outlook) report that institutional capital flows have had a "multiplier effect" on the spot price of BTC, with every $1 billion net inflow into spot ETFs pushing the price up by about 3-6%. This dynamic is expected to accelerate by 2025 as large institutional investors, including sovereign wealth funds, endowment funds, and pension funds, increase their BTC allocations. The proposed (21st Century Financial Innovation and Technology Act) (FIT21) and (Payment Stablecoin Act) are particularly important for cryptocurrencies. Jay Jacobs, head of U.S. thematic and actively managed ETFs at BlackRock, stated at the "ETFs in Depth" conference: our current exploration of BTC, especially ETH, is just the tip of the iceberg, with only a very small number of clients holding (IBIT and ETHA), so our current focus is on this area rather than launching new altcoin ETFs. Bloomberg terminal news reported that BlackRock stated that allocating up to 2% of the portfolio to BTC is a reasonable range. On December 12, U.S. BTC spot ETF inflows reached $604.35 million, and U.S. ETH spot ETF inflows were $274 million, marking a continuous net inflow for 14 days. Reuters reported that NASDAQ-listed Riot Platforms increased its holdings by 5.1 million BTC. On the traditional market, ETH futures positions on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) surpassed 1 million ETH for the first time, reaching a historic high, with a 15.22% increase in 24-hour positions. On December 13, Tether issued $1 billion in stablecoins, and since November 6, Tether has minted $21 billion in stablecoins.
On December 12, Trump rang the opening bell at the New York Stock Exchange, stating at the ceremony: "For me, the stock market is everything; it is very important, and we will do great things in the fields of cryptocurrency and artificial intelligence," while reiterating tax reduction plans. CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju stated that BlackRock's BTC spot ETF has now surpassed the assets under management of BlackRock's gold ETF, with billions of dollars flowing into the BTC market weekly; currently, the market value of gold is $17 trillion, while BTC's market value is $2 trillion. On December 12, the Swiss National Bank unexpectedly cut rates by 50 basis points, with the market expecting a 25 basis point cut. On the 12th, the European Central Bank cut rates by 25 basis points as expected, marking the fourth rate cut this year, bringing the deposit rate down by 25 basis points to 3%, while removing the language about maintaining "restrictive" rates, thus opening the door for further rate cuts. ECB President Lagarde stated that European economic growth is losing momentum, and inflation issues have not been fully resolved. There were discussions about a 50 basis point rate cut, but it is generally believed that a 25 basis point cut is the correct move. ECB council member Holzmann stated that the neutral rate is around 2%, and rates could fall to about that level. Council member Escriva mentioned that further rate cuts in the upcoming monetary meetings are logical. Council member Kazaks noted that the neutral rate is closer to 2% rather than 3%, with potentially larger cuts if necessary. ECB council member Müller stated that the strong period of inflation is over, and hopes to see inflation around 2%, with the market expecting an additional 100 basis point rate cut.
The NASDAQ composite rose to 20,000 points for the first time on Wednesday, with 90% of economists surveyed by institutions believing that the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points in December. Most economists expect that due to rising inflation risks, the Fed will pause rate cuts at the monetary policy meeting at the end of January. Futures traders expect that by the end of next year, the Fed may carry out up to four additional quarterly rate cuts of 25 basis points each. Currently, there is a significant divergence among Fed members regarding the long-term neutral rate forecast, with the lowest being 2.375% and the highest being 3.75%. Fed member Logan has compiled various estimates from the economic community, believing that the lowest estimate is around 2.7% and the highest is about 4.6%. The current Fed rate is 4.5-4.75%. Citigroup's economist team predicts that the outlook for the U.S. economy next year is not optimistic, and by 2025, U.S. companies will shift from reducing hiring to outright layoffs, leading the Fed to adopt aggressive rate cuts, expecting to cut rates by 25 basis points at each meeting before July next year, bringing the rate down to between 3% and 3.25%. Fed counterparts: On Wednesday, the Bank of Canada cut rates by 50 basis points, on Thursday, the Swiss National Bank cut rates by 50 basis points, and on Thursday, the European Central Bank cut rates by 25 basis points. All three central banks turned dovish in their statements, increasing expectations for rate cuts next year, which is essentially an expectation of easing.
Next Thursday morning, the Federal Reserve's rate decision is expected to have a 95% chance of a rate cut. On Thursday, CZ publicly called out Travala, and on Friday, Bn announced the launch of two projects, both of which saw significant surges. In the bull market, mixed results are seen; investment institutions that were "stuck" previously are expected to boast about projects they have invested in during the bull market, and previously undervalued coins are making efforts to rise, similar to the activity of institutions in 2021. With the push from the "scissors," the atmosphere of the bull market is becoming increasingly strong. (Reasonably controlling positions, there are many opportunities in the bull market, with the main tone being upward) BTC's market share has declined from 60% at the end of November and is currently below 55%, around 54.5%. The low point in the previous bull market cycle was about 37%. As the bull market advances, other coins have room to rise. (Entering the bull market, the "scissors" are more active than the "chives," paying attention to risks while rising.)#BTC重回关键位置后走势