Last night, a needle shot up, and all shorts below 103000 for Bitcoin were liquidated. Currently, there are slightly more shorts. If we continue to accumulate short liquidity above 102600, there might be another spike on Friday night! A fan asked if Bitcoin has been fluctuating around 70,000 for 240 days, should we prepare for a long battle at 100,000? I believe it won’t take that long because the current market is vastly different from the market six months ago, with the amount of funds flowing into the market being like two different worlds. The first rate cut on September 18, the second on November 7, and the significant market changes after the U.S. elections on November 5 are very notable. This is not a market brought about by Trump; it fundamentally stems from the Fed's rate cuts directly causing a rapid influx of funds into the market, raising all boats. Six months ago, the rise from 30,000 to 70,000 was purely due to the approval of Bitcoin ETFs; the funds were just being shifted around. Now it’s different; both sides are robust. What I mean by this is clear: stabilizing above 100,000 won't take long. The entire bull market has about 11-12 months before it reaches its peak and ends. It cannot afford to spend another seven or eight months fluctuating with you. Have you ever seen a bull phase in a halving cycle that fluctuates for more than two and a half months?
On December 19, the Fed's interest rate cut will come into effect, with a 25 basis point cut confirmed. The market will start to fluctuate six hours before the meeting, and if the outcome meets expectations, the market will rally, so this isn't considered a bearish point. The main strategy remains to buy on dips and take profits during rebounds. On December 19, during the day, the Japanese monetary policy meeting will take place. If there is no interest rate hike, and the expectations for a hike in January are weak, then it can surge directly. In the past two days, information has been released that Japan's interest rate hike has been delayed until March next year. Based on the larger cycle, the real major correction will be from March to May. This major correction refers to a retracement of about 32-38% of the total space gained from November 5 to March, reflecting on the charts as a weekly level adjustment. Currently, there are no signs of this, so it is inferred that there is generally no risk of deep adjustments from December to March, and buying on dips does not require caution. The only bearish risk for bulls in the short term is Japan's interest rate hike. Speaking of altcoins: in the past week, regardless of whether the market rises or falls, the daily trading volume of altcoins has consistently maintained above 40%. The focus of capital speculation has clearly shifted to altcoins, and this trend, once formed, is often not easily changed. Adhering to the principle of 'the strong get stronger' is the best way to filter out the leading coins in new trends. There are two main criteria for choosing targets: first, the coin price has broken through this year's resistance zone in March; second, the coin price has the smallest drop during the retracement and the largest increase during the rebound.
The small-level ACT has basically broken through. The first breakout closed with a small candlestick, which is a behavior to induce shorts and trap them. Currently, the probability of maintaining the breakout is very high. Additionally, the next candlestick on the 1-hour level is a large bullish candlestick, indicating a strong performance in bottom-fishing.
ETH
There has been a net inflow for 14 consecutive days, and the amount is not small, but the price has been fluctuating. My understanding is that ETH is currently in a turnover period, with significant internal disagreements. Weak hands are exiting, while old money from outside is gradually entering. There was a similar turnover period at the end of January and early February after the BTC ETF was launched, where weak hands believed the favorable conditions had landed, and old money was continuously entering through the ETF amidst Grayscale's selling pressure. I believe this turnover period is nearing its end, and the net inflow from the ETF will gradually increase, with volume expanding, leading to a real explosion in ETH prices. One can directly reference the BTC ETF; BTC rose by 70% after the turnover period ended.
The second half of the month is approaching, and Christmas is near. Many institutions also need to settle annualized rates, so there may be a demand for profit-taking at the current high level of Bitcoin. Although the news every day is about BlackRock's continuous buying, it does not mean that the market will continue to rise. It is a potential upward momentum. The fact is that buying is continuous, but the price is still fluctuating at a high level, indicating that there are still significant profits around 100,000 in the short term. Therefore, during the adjustment period, if Ethereum approaches 3500, don’t hesitate to add some positions!
#BTC重返10万 #加密市场反弹 #DeFi全线飙升 #SUI再创新高 #BTC重回关键位置后走势
