Recent Operation Plan
1. Long-Short Ratio and Market Situation
The current long-short ratio for the cryptocurrency of interest has reached 4 to 1, which is severely deviated from the normal long-short ratio of 1. Due to an excessive number of long positions in altcoin contracts, a situation of 'too heavy at the front' has formed. This greatly hinders the market makers' ability to drive up prices, making it difficult for them to push the price higher. In this situation, it is highly likely that the market makers will adjust the market structure through a washout, and the anticipated washout period could last for one to two months. Therefore, it is strongly advised not to participate in contract trading during this period.
2. Historical Trend Analysis
From the previous market wave at 0.0023, it is clear that the market makers originally intended to drive up prices. However, due to the overly concentrated long positions, or being 'too heavy at the front', the attempt to push up prices failed, leading to a price drop. In a very short time frame, just one or two days, the price first broke through the first resistance level of 21 to reach 23, but then quickly fell below the first support level of 16 down to 14. The rapid breakthrough of both support and resistance levels clearly indicates market instability and the difficulties faced by market makers in pushing up prices, which again confirms the recommendation against contract trading.
3. Operation Strategy and Plan
Currently, I still hold the spot of this cryptocurrency and promise to post updates to inform followers in case of any selling actions. The original planned cycle was one week, but given the current market conditions, the plan has been extended and may require one month. Throughout this process, if there are any changes in position, I will post reminders to everyone.
4. Comparison of Different Cryptocurrencies and Market Outlook
On the Binance platform, cryptocurrencies like babydoge and turbo, which were launched at the same time but have fewer holders, are relatively easier for market makers to drive up, making it smoother to push prices higher. However, the cryptocurrency currently being analyzed has a market cap of only 690 million in Binance's meme category, which is at a low level. The low market cap, combined with a large influx of retail investors buying after the decline, places enormous pressure on market makers to push the price up. Therefore, it can be anticipated that the washout market will continue for some time.