BTC is currently experiencing oscillation and a downward trend, while this week ETH ETF inflows have reached a record high. The market shows a tendency to speculate on old coins rather than new ones, with old coins in the altcoin sector rising while new coins generally decline. ETH has seen a net inflow for 14 consecutive days, and although the amount is not small, the price has remained oscillatory. My understanding is that ETH is currently in a turnover period, with significant divergences in the market. Weak hands are exiting, while old money from outside is gradually entering.
The BTC ETF had a similar turnover period at the end of January and early February after its launch, where weak hands in the market thought the good news was realized, and along with the pressure from Grayscale, they exited. Meanwhile, old money from outside has been continuously entering through the ETF. I believe this turnover period is nearing its end, and the net inflow of the ETF will gradually increase, leading to a real explosion in ETH prices. BTC can be directly referenced; after the turnover period ended, BTC rose by 70%. Currently, the BTC ETF is also experiencing continuous net inflows, but prices have reached a phase of oscillation, with significant divergences in the market, similarly in a turnover phase. Old investors are selling off, while MicroStrategy and Wall Street are continuously buying.
U.S. stocks: experienced a decline, influenced by the U.S. November industrial inflation PPI exceeding expectations. The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve will pause rate cuts in January, with potential rate hikes being delayed until March next year.
Early Thursday morning next week, the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates, and a 25 basis point cut is almost certain. About six hours before the meeting, the market may start to fluctuate. If the rate cut result aligns with expectations, the market will rise, so this is not bad news. Overall, it is still recommended to buy at market lows and sell at rebounds to earn some profit.
Then on December 19, Japan will also hold a monetary policy meeting during the day. If they decide not to raise interest rates, and if market expectations for a January rate hike are not strong, the stock market may see a nice rise. There have been reports recently that Japan may postpone the rate hike until March next year. From a macro perspective, a real major market adjustment may occur around March to May. The so-called "major correction" refers to the space that has risen from November 5 to March, which may retrace 32% to 38%. This type of correction may present itself as a weekly adjustment.
Some people have mentioned whether Bitcoin will experience a significant drop during the recent Christmas period?
I think the possibility of this is very low. The recent drops have mostly been through quick spikes to clear contract positions, a washout trend. From the contract data, the direction where funds are significantly concentrated often becomes the target for major players to suppress, accurately clearing out high leverage and weak positions, accumulating strength for the next wave of increases. From an overall trend analysis, the market is currently in the later stages of a bull market. Before Trump officially takes office on January 20, the market still hopes he will fulfill his campaign promises. As long as there are no major negative news, this market consensus will continue to support the upward momentum of Bitcoin. In addition, according to the latest ETF data, Bitcoin spot ETF achieved a net inflow of $604 million yesterday, and Ethereum spot ETF saw a net inflow of $276 million, with Ethereum's ETF inflow hitting a new high this week. This indicates that U.S. institutions are increasing their buying power for Ethereum, with new funds continuously flowing into its ecosystem. Yesterday, Ethereum also saw a wave of catch-up momentum, and the technical indicators show it is about to break through a key resistance level. If successful, it may challenge the previous high of $4800. It is worth noting that the Trump family purchased ETH, LINK, and AAVE through the COW protocol, which also fueled the catch-up trend of these projects, further heating up the market.
Market hotspots:
Public chain sector: ETH is rising, and DeFi projects like LINK, AAVE, COW, and LDO are surging. The Trump family funds purchased ETH, LINK, and AAVE through the COW protocol, while LDO has attracted attention due to Grayscale's trust application submission. This round of increases is closely related to U.S. politics and compliance narratives.
Payment sector: AVA and UTK have surged significantly. AVA is an established coin focused on travel crypto payments, launched in 2017, with CZ announcing early investment, and its annual revenue has reached $100 million.
On-chain AI and Meme: Projects like GOAT, VIRTUAL, and FARTCOIN are rising. GOAT has been supported by OK. The on-chain Desci project URO has surged significantly, with a market cap exceeding RIF. The new on-chain DeFi coin HYPE's market cap has skyrocketed to $18 billion.
BN new coin sector: Leading the decline are projects including ME, MOVE, USUAL, ORCA, ACX, etc. The decline of USUAL is mainly affected by the end of pre-market trading and a significant increase in supply.
In December, Bitcoin may break the 120,000 mark. Which altcoins may explode 20-100 times in the future!
DOGE
The narrative of DOGE is a Shiba Inu meme image that became popular on the internet, which then ignited the web3 DOGE, combined with endorsements from celebrities like Elon Musk, ultimately leading it to become the current meme king of web3.
SHIB
The narrative of SHIB is that it is the "killer" of Dogecoin DOGE, combined with a 450-day 400,000-fold surge, creating countless millionaires. It is the first token to break out from web3 to web2, and the story of this wealth phenomenon is being discussed everywhere.
PEPE
PEPE previously had various dog memes, including the well-known DOGE and SHIB. PEPE has many narratives, with its core narrative being a return of memes to the spirit of entertainment. Pepe's emoticons and memes are ubiquitous. It can be said that PEPE is a unique existence, serving as a versatile meme source, achieving viral spread.
Neiro
Neiro continues to focus on the dog series. After the death of the DOGE mascot dog KABUSO, its owner adopted a Shiba Inu named Neiro. As a result, Neiro has become the new mascot for DOGE. Based on this core narrative, Neiro is set to become the hottest MEME in 2024.
