After experiencing a pullback earlier this week, Bitcoin surged again, breaking through the $100,000 mark. Earlier, BTC briefly surpassed last week's high of $110,800 at six in the morning before retreating, with a near 24-hour increase of 4.6%. If it can successfully break through again after consolidation, it is expected to challenge the historical high of $104,000.
In the past two days, the crypto market has been turbulent, and the market has been thoroughly washed out. Microsoft's shareholder meeting voted down the Bitcoin investment proposal, coupled with Google's announcement of the quantum chip Willow, which also brought significant volatility to the market. Retail investors are cutting losses, but the net inflow of Bitcoin ETFs remains steady. Last night, the U.S. November CPI was also in line with expectations, and the funding rate dropped directly to 0. The market lightened up, and it stood back up at $100,000 again.
Yesterday, I indicated that there was a high probability of a positive CPI report on Wednesday night that would boost the market, similar to last Thursday's prediction about the non-farm payroll report on Friday night. I also mentioned that if shorting again on Wednesday morning, the position should be half the size of Tuesday's high short. One strong push can lead to exhaustion; declines usually do not last more than 72 hours—this is a golden rule.
Shorting on the third day, the position must be small; why small?
The goal is to have enough space to add positions after a breakout to prevent a pullback. Therefore, there will be opportunities to take profits around the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting next week. When trading in the short term, sometimes it is necessary to have a broader perspective and assess the situation.
Many fans are asking what the next direction for Bitcoin is.
Answer: The subsequent market is firmly bullish; the market is currently very healthy.
(1) The continuous bulk buying of coins by MSTR and MARA at a cost above 90,000 forms strong support for BTC prices, expected to last at least until the new government takes office at the end of January.
At the end of October, a total of $21 billion in stock financing was announced, using $2 billion weekly, and currently, there is still $9 billion left. At the rate of using $2 billion weekly, it is expected to last 4-5 weeks until January 20 when the new government takes office.
(2) Recent sharp liquidations of leverage have restored the market to a healthy state.
At 6:28 AM on December 6, Bitcoin spiked to around 90,500, causing leveraged positions to explode at around 102,000 when chasing highs; at 5:10 AM on December 10, Bitcoin spiked to around 94,000, exploding altcoin leverage. The market has now recovered from a frenzy to a healthy state, and the funding rate for long positions in Bitcoin has decreased from over 100% to around 10%.
(3) The recommendation for cryptocurrencies on the Alipay homepage!
The recommendation for cryptocurrencies on the Alipay homepage in Mainland China! This fund is named Huabao Overseas Technology C (QDII-FOF-LOF), but currently has a limit, with a maximum daily investment of 1,000 yuan. The main investment targets are Coinbase stocks and Bitcoin ETFs.
The work we need to do in the upcoming bull market:
(1) Protect profits on Bitcoin and altcoin positions.
When prices stagnate but the on-site leverage ratio rises sharply, it is necessary to protect profits on Bitcoin and altcoin positions (the recent wave of leverage killing Bitcoin and the wave particularly killing altcoins are very evident).
(2) In a bull market, do not short or avoid shorting as much as possible.
Every time there is a drop for a day or two, I hear many people dejectedly saying the bull market is over, the bull has left, and they often predict a drop to 80,000 or 70,000. I can't remember how many times I have refuted this. Just yesterday, I saw many bloggers talking about black swans, predicting the market might drop to 5.19, etc. I am left speechless.
In the coming year, buying on dips will be the main focus. You must not let short selling become your main focus; otherwise, a major upward trend will completely bury you. 100,000 is the most significant threshold recently; if it holds here, there will be an increase to 50,000 and 50,000 points. Even if we enter a 3-5 day line and weekly adjustment cycle in the future, the pullback space will only be about 38% of the increase.
That's all for today. During the bull market phase, many people hope to have a discussion. If you really can't navigate the crypto world by yourself, don't force yourself; come find me to be my apprentice, understand the latest information, layout strategies, embrace the bull market, improve your win rate, and say goodbye to being trapped at high positions.