December Fed rate cut, it's settled!

US November CPI year-on-year +2.7%, month-on-month +0.3%, both in line with expectations.

Excluding food and energy, the core CPI year-on-year +3.3%, month-on-month +0.3%, also meets expectations.

The probability of a 25bp rate cut on December 18 in the interest rate futures market has risen to 99.9%, indicating a certain rate cut.

Gold and silver soared, US stocks also rose, and Bitcoin once again broke through $100,000, reaching $100,300, nearing its all-time high, all of which is quite reasonable.

However, paradoxically, the dollar did not fall but instead rose, currently at 106.7.

The 10-year US Treasury yield also rose instead of falling, increasing to 4.25%.

This implies that the market is pricing in a short-term rate cut (within 6 months), medium-term stability (6 months to 1 year), and long-term rate hikes (over 1 year): next year, the Fed is likely to shorten the rate cut path, and may start signaling rate hikes by the end of the year.

Of course, once the knowledgeable king takes office, everything might change: imposing tariffs, reducing domestic taxes, leading to rapid inflation, making rate hikes in the second half of next year possible.

Just now, Yellen fiercely criticized the knowledgeable king's tax reduction policy, calling it a "serious fiscal blow"!

Next year, many things will be more exciting and uncertain than this year, so everyone should be prepared.

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