Onchain options protocol Derive stated that Ethereum has less than a 10% chance of reaching the $5,000 milestone by the end of 2024, despite significant capital flowing into spot Ether ETF funds, suggesting an impending 'supply crisis.'
The probability of Ether (ETH) reaching $5,000 on December 27 'has risen to 16% at its peak but has recently adjusted down to just over 8%,' Sean Dawson, head of research at Derive, said in a market report on December 10.
The chances for Ether to reach $5,000 by the end of the year have decreased by about 50% | Source: Derive.xyz
Data from CoinMarketCap shows that ETH is currently trading at $3,669, needing a 37% increase to reach $5,000.
Source: CoinMarketCap
Dawson also remarked that 'the call and put options of ETH are evenly distributed, indicating that the current market sentiment is neutral.'
TradFi is hunting for cheap ETH
The anonymous analyst CoinMamba has a different perspective, sharing in a post on X on December 10 that his goal is for ETH to reach $5,000 before the year ends.
'Do what you want with that information,' CoinMamba added.
Meanwhile, also on December 10, Ethereum contributor Eric Conner pointed out the daily capital flow of $305 million into Ether ETF funds as a signal that 'a supply crisis' is approaching.
Ethereum educator Anthony Sassano added that 'traditional finance (TradFi) is hunting for cheap ETH.'
According to data from Farside, of the $305 million capital flow, Fidelity's Ethereum Fund accounted for $202.2 million.
Will ETH reach a new all-time high next week?
This follows a statement on December 9 from Bankless podcast host Ryan Adams, that ETH could create a new all-time high next week. The current historical peak for Ether is $4,878, reached in November 2021.
Meanwhile, anonymous analyst Pentoshi shared with 830,900 followers on X on December 9 that Ether 'is undergoing structural changes and is beginning to see more stable and larger ETF flows.'
Weekly ETH/USDT chart | Source: Pentoshi
He emphasized that ETH has had 'the highest weekly close of the year' and agreed with Adams' perspective, suggesting that a retest of the historical peak could happen sooner than many traders expect.
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