There’s not much to analyze about the current market; Bitcoin has not shown much rebound strength. If it doesn't go up, it will continue to consolidate or drop. Don’t panic; this is just a normal pullback. The goal of the market manipulators is clear: to eliminate long leverage during the Asian trading hours to keep the market light, making it easier to initiate a rally.
It's hard to say whether there are limit downs right now; if you can't resist the urge to enter, do it in batches, don’t go all in!
Before the bull to bear transition in the second half of next year, the new high for Bitcoin will definitely not be 1046, so don’t be afraid; opportunities come from declines, and risks come from increases. If you can’t seize the opportunities after a decline, you will almost certainly have to bear the risks of chasing highs!
Back to today's daily BTC market analysis, from the K-line perspective, the 1-hour level shows an upward trend, the 4-hour level shows a weak rebound, the 12-hour level shows a downward trend, and the daily level shows a downward trend. The intraday resistance is at 98500, and the support is at 94000 USD.
Another point worth noting is that the U.S. will release the November CPI data tonight:
On December 11, 2024, at 21:30 (UTC+8), the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the November unadjusted CPI annual rate data. The forecast is 2.7%, higher than the previous value of 2.60%.
Based on tonight's CPI data, the current price is a very good mid to long-term buying area: if CPI is negative, you can take advantage of the downturn to buy mid to long-term spot between 91000-94000.
Contracts are not recommended, as you are all playing with high leverage.
Recently, altcoins have really been like Bitcoin with huge leverage; when Bitcoin drops 1%, altcoins can crash.
On December 6th, in the early morning wave, Bitcoin's drop from 100k to 90k was quite significant, and all were cleared with over 10X leverage.
On December 10th, around five in the morning, this wave cleared all the altcoins 3X.
I reviewed several data points, the Moodgen for the day had a fluctuation of 50%, and other similar market cap declines had similar fluctuations, meaning a 2X leverage would be wiped out.
WIF daily fluctuation is about 35%, with a market cap of 4 billion. This range of market cap, with 3X leverage, was cleared out.
This kind of flash crash cannot be heavily bought; be cautious as the rebound might not happen and could lead to a downward trend. The principle is to avoid these 'flying knife' orders. Otherwise, it could very likely turn into a funeral pyre!
Altcoins need to differentiate; pay attention to low-level rebounds and strong funds washing out mainstream stocks for a V recovery!
Capital rates have returned to normal; bull markets often have more crashes, which is why losses in a bull market can be greater than in a bear market!
If you lose on contracts, you lose your principal; if you lose on spot, at least the coins are still there.
You must understand that the market cannot always rise; major funds will always find ways to let some investors exit to maximize their own profits!!!
But luckily, from the decline over the past two days, we can see which ones will still rise and which are truly weak.
For example, relatively strong ones include: PEPE, ONDO, JTO, MOVE, ME, HSK.
PEPE
PEPE is the leader of the entire bull market MEME, with a very good storyline. It’s a coin that outperforms Bitcoin; although it has broken the previous high, doubling again is not a big problem, and it’s moving quickly. Entry point: around 0.21—0.22.
ONDO
RWA has a good ecosystem and has already landed, plus it has BlackRock's background. During a crash, it will definitely be a choice, but I probably won’t buy it because there are already coins between 0.2-0.6, and I’ve completed my layout, so why buy at 1.5-1.7.
JTO
SOL sector, benchmarked against the ETH sector's LDO market cap, conservatively should be at least 60% of its market cap. This coin rises slowly and declines steadily. It only starts to act when the market crashes; everyone should grasp this habit. So every time there’s a significant drop, I can always buy it; I always place orders.
Avoid coins with poor depth
The characteristic of altcoins is high volatility; they rise quickly and sharply, with short-term fluctuations far exceeding Bitcoin, and the same goes for declines. So during the pullback phase, holding altcoins can feel quite painful, but don’t forget that when prices skyrocket, it’s also you altcoin holders looking down on Bitcoin holders! Gains and losses come from the same source.
Finally, let me give the babies a password
rsr now: 0.0133u; there’s a SEC chairman’s big uncle, and he’ll be in office in more than a month. He used to serve as an advisor at rsr. After taking office, there will definitely be major benefits.
This narrative is very strong; the spot price has been directly pulled up nearly twice, and now it’s testing the 4H ema support, I think it’s a very good opportunity to accumulate spot. If it drops below 0.0125, then just buy more.
This is the previous news, which has already been hyped, but the main events are yet to come. After taking office, there will definitely be more narratives and hype. Hold spot for the medium to short term, expecting a price increase of over 30%!