History only repeats itself in various forms; Bitcoin suffers a bit, while altcoins directly hit a major artery.
The entire market is in despair, indicating that everyone is playing with altcoins. At this time, perhaps everyone is betting that 2025 will be like 2021, with the first half being the altcoin season.
Will the altcoin season come again?
When everyone is betting on the altcoin season, perhaps one should be mentally prepared for the altcoin season to arrive a few months late, or even delayed until the end of 2025.
Though late, it has arrived! I believe the overall cycle is similar; Bitcoin will outperform altcoins from 2023 to 2024, and altcoins will outperform Bitcoin in 2025, but the details will not be the same. For example, the altcoin season was strongest from March to April 2021. This cycle may be delayed by a few months, or even half a year. Value coins will oscillate upwards in the long term, while the altcoin season can come early or late.
Don't be disappointed by not being able to carve the boat to find the historical details; details can never be obtained in that way, including starting time and amplitude. The altcoin season is always short-lived, and everything should be centered around value.
Persist in buying at low prices to reduce the cost of mistakes. Better not to buy than to chase after high prices; if you keep the green mountains, you won’t fear not having firewood. Investing is not about the winners being kings, but about the survivors being kings. To earn more and safer money, investors should brave the market when others are fearful, rather than following the crowd. When others are greedy, your buying will have low cost performance.
Investing is not black and white; it’s not as simple as buying everything or selling everything. The key is adjustment; don’t buy at high prices, adjust the main position to more cost-effective and valuable coins. Value coins trend upwards in the long term, and the altcoin season cannot carve the historical details. Strive to increase the cost performance of higher value-supported coins while reducing those without value and with excessive increases. If cost performance and value coexist, it is a stroke of luck.
Altcoin market: Is there a need to further 'squeeze out the excess'?
Although Bitcoin's market performance is outstanding, the outlook for altcoins remains uncertain. Especially during Bitcoin's adjustment cycle, many altcoins' funding rates are generally negative, indicating low market confidence in these tokens. Bitcoin's dominance is still solidifying, while altcoins face more challenges.
Short-term outlook for altcoins: sluggishness remains the main theme.
Despite the significant short-term corrections in altcoin prices, some investors may view this as an opportunity to buy at low prices, but from the overall market sentiment, altcoin holders lack confidence, and the possibility of a sharp rebound in the short term is low. Nevertheless, certain altcoins, such as Ethereum and Solana, still possess some potential, especially with Bitcoin's rise that could lead to a rebound for them as well.
Bitcoin dominates the market: Differences in altcoin performance.
Currently, Bitcoin's performance still dominates the market, while altcoins perform relatively weakly. Even if some altcoins appear to have large declines and their prices seem 'discounted', the uncertainty of a short-term rise remains significant. In contrast, Bitcoin's strong performance makes its continued challenge of $100,000 possible, which means market funds will continue to concentrate on Bitcoin, while the performance of other altcoins may be suppressed.
The future of Bitcoin: After a short-term adjustment, it may welcome a rise.
For short-term operations, it is still recommended that investors focus on Bitcoin. After its adjustment, Bitcoin may have the opportunity to challenge $102,000 or even $107,000 again. In contrast, altcoins like Ethereum and Solana face greater adjustment pressure in the short term, requiring more time and a recovery of market confidence to regain upward momentum.
Summary: Bitcoin is the main focus, altcoins should be operated cautiously.
The current market is still dominated by Bitcoin; investors should prioritize watching Bitcoin's trends, especially near the support level of $94,000. In the short term, Bitcoin is expected to challenge $100,000 again, while altcoins may continue to face capital outflows and lack of confidence. Although some altcoins, like Solana, may experience a rebound after long-term adjustments, Bitcoin remains the most stable investment choice at this stage.
Overall, the short-term operational strategy should focus on Bitcoin. Spot investors can buy at low levels, while contract investors need to wait for higher highs and higher lows to form. In choosing altcoins, besides Bitcoin, Solana may be a relatively more promising target.
