Early Review: Bitcoin has failed to break above $100,000 continuously, and overnight it pierced through a key level, with subsequent momentum showing signs of exhaustion! Review of past events: Four days ago, on December 6th, the shepherd warned that Bitcoin must defend the Maginot Line of $100,000, otherwise it would become dangerous! As of the time of writing, Bitcoin has plummeted to around $94,000, with altcoins dropping over 20%! We promptly arranged a dedicated strategy to respond, avoiding this small crisis!
Looking at Bitcoin from the current long-term channel perspective, it has virtually breached the bottom of the channel as of the time of writing. Everyone can take a look at the chart below; the channel in this chart has not changed from what the shepherd has maintained. I firmly believe that it will be difficult for Bitcoin to reach $100,000, based on a judgment of market sentiment. It will continue to oscillate within this channel. This judgment is so precise because it also considers leverage data. In previous content, the shepherd pointed out that Bitcoin's current upward movement is based on a significant bullish leverage. Such a large bullish leverage is simply not enough for the counterparties, so where does this remaining part of the deficit come from? It is clear that market makers and exchanges cannot pull it out of their pockets to give to retail investors!
So does last night's virtual breach of the channel bottom and key level mean that the bull market is over? This question is not critical at the moment; let's look at a more tricky issue. As of now, the shepherd is concerned that Bitcoin will continue to oscillate in this channel before moving up and virtually breaking through, but it has not been able to stabilize above Bitcoin's 'Maginot Line', repeatedly washing out retail investors' mentality. When it dips down, retail investors are eager to cut losses, and when it virtually breaks upward, they are eager to jump on board! This is the market maker mentality understood by the shepherd after experiencing two cycles of bull and bear markets! Therefore, the next Bitcoin faces two issues: one, the impact of interest rate cuts, and two, the possibility of Trump taking office in the White House. The market makers will likely use these two events to manipulate the market. Crucially: whether Trump can fulfill his pre-election promises regarding Bitcoin after taking office will become an important node event for market makers! The shepherd believes that market makers will use this point to push Bitcoin upward, leading retail investors to mistakenly think that the third phase of a bull market is about to start, then quickly plunging below the current trading channel, trapping all retail investors! This will result in three months of oscillation, during which the market will crash, and altcoins will likely fall back to their starting point or even lower, which should be between $100,000 and $116,000!
Of course, there is no need for everyone to feel fear and panic about this, as the essence of finance is oscillation! There is no market that is continuously going up or down. What we need to do is to go with the flow and play along with the market makers! Currently, Bitcoin still has a chance to move upward! So you should know what to do! Whether you hold altcoins or Bitcoin, I believe you can understand the shepherd's meaning!