Written by: Miles Deutscher, Crypto Analyst
Translated by: Yuliya, PANews
The market is experiencing a critical turning point. After Bitcoin broke through the $100,000 mark this week, investors' attention has turned to the next price target. Based on comprehensive data analysis, multiple indicators are showing that Bitcoin is expected to reach a new height of $150,000 in 2025.
This report will conduct an in-depth analysis through 10 key indicators from the following four dimensions:
Temporal Cycle Analysis
Macroeconomic Factors
Market Demand Dynamics
On-chain Data Indicators
Temporal Cycle Analysis
1. The current price trend of Bitcoin is highly similar to past cycles.
2. The market has entered the most explosive phase, which is the period of the fastest price acceleration.
3. Throughout historical cycles, Bitcoin has always entered the red zone of the power law probability model (97% position). If this cycle repeats this pattern, it means that Bitcoin’s price will break through $196,000.
Macroeconomic Factors
4. The current macro environment is in the most favorable state since 2021. Bitcoin is extremely sensitive to changes in monetary policy and global liquidity.
5. It is expected that interest rate cuts will continue in 2025, which will create strong macro support for risk assets.
Market Demand Dynamics
6. MicroStrategy continues to buy according to its 21/21 plan (targeting to hold 21% of Bitcoin's total supply, with $29.3 billion remaining to invest).
This affects Bitcoin demand from two aspects:
MicroStrategy's continuous and aggressive buying pressure
Speculative funds are positioning in advance to respond to future buying pressure
7. The holdings of U.S. spot ETFs have exceeded 1.1 million Bitcoins, surpassing Satoshi Nakamoto's holdings. This brings continuous buying pressure. Spot ETFs also generate an extremely powerful 'unit deviation' effect.
On-chain Data Indicators
8. Retail demand for Bitcoin has surged, reaching the highest level since 2020.
9. New funds are driving the current price trend of Bitcoin. 'Even at $102,000, it is far from bubble levels - an increase of 43% is needed to reach the threshold usually considered a bubble.'
10. Even at the $100,000 level, the pressure to take profits is weakening, indicating that selling pressure is cooling down.
Market Outlook
Currently, multiple factors are highly aligned, indicating that the upward trend will continue. In such a macro environment, Bitcoin breaking through $150,000 will inject strong momentum into the entire cryptocurrency market.
The improvement in market liquidity will undoubtedly lead to a greater upward trend, especially for the altcoin market. In the coming weeks, we will continue to track and share noteworthy investment opportunities in altcoins.
