The BTC price and total open interest have once again reached new highs, currently breaking the $65 billion mark, with no signs of divergence. The rhythm of spot price increases and futures follow-ups remains healthy. From the market perspective, the fluctuations over the past day, accompanied by a gradual decrease in open interest, indicate that the market is transitioning from an overly leveraged state to a more healthy deleveraging state.
The main risk we need to be vigilant about is that while the total futures open interest reaches new highs, the price fails to follow through, or the futures open interest significantly exceeds price performance. Currently, there are no adverse signs indicating this, so the trend continues to maintain a pattern where spot leads and futures follow. Typically, this pattern involves the spot first rising for a period, followed by minor fluctuations, and then futures pushing up for another round. After entering the fluctuation phase, the futures open interest will gradually be digested, and then a new round of cycles will begin. Looking at the market around the $75,000 level, this cycle has been repeating continuously.
