On December 5 at around 10:32 AM, the price of BTC broke through the $100,000 mark, peaking at $104,630.4, a 7.36% increase within 24 hours. The long-awaited $100,000 milestone has finally been breached, living up to expectations. As of the time of writing, the BTC price is around $101,899.9.
Coinglass data shows that in the past 24 hours, the entire network has liquidated $660 million, with $350 million in major long positions, and a total of 211,580 people were liquidated.
Witnessing history: Bitcoin has first broken through the $100,000 mark, achieving a new milestone, and history is being continuously rewritten, with $100,000 possibly being a new starting point.
Institutions continue to buy BTC, buy, buy, buy; $100,000 is just a new starting point:
In November, cryptocurrency trading volume soared to a historical high, with centralized spot and derivatives exchanges' digital asset trading volume first exceeding $10 trillion.
Currently, the demand for BTC from traditional institutions is extremely strong. Deribit Asia Pacific business head Lin Chen posted on X, stating that the trading volume of BTC ecosystem stocks reached $50 billion on November 21, exceeding the entire UK stock market. The trading volume of MSTR alone has reached $32 billion, and the trading volume of two other MSTR leveraged ETFs has reached $6 billion.
In just the third week of November, four publicly traded companies added billions of dollars in collective debt to their balance sheets to purchase Bitcoin, namely MicroStrategy, MARA Holdings, Semler Scientific, and MetaPlanet.
Additionally, MicroStrategy has sold over $6 billion in convertible notes this year to purchase Bitcoin, with hedge funds buying in for arbitrage bets. Since October 31, MicroStrategy has purchased approximately $13.5 billion in Bitcoin and issued $3 billion in zero-interest convertible notes, marking the company's fifth bond issuance this year.
These low-interest long-term notes currently have an outstanding amount of over $7 billion, and if the stock price rises above a certain level, these notes can be converted into stock. Hedge funds purchase these notes to deploy their convertible arbitrage strategies, and companies like AQR Capital Management and Man Group have already implemented this strategy elsewhere. This is one of the hottest strategies on Wall Street this year.
Previously, U.S. publicly traded company Hoth Therapeutics announced that its board approved the purchase of up to $1 million in Bitcoin. Hoth CEO Robb Knie stated: 'With the continuous growth of Bitcoin and its gradual emergence as a major asset class, attracting investor attention and recognition, we believe Bitcoin will become a strong financial reserve asset. With Bitcoin ETFs recently approved and increased activity from institutional investors, Bitcoin will become a powerful complement to financial strategies. We believe Bitcoin's anti-inflation characteristics may make it a reliable asset with value storage capabilities.' U.S. publicly traded company LQR House Inc. recently announced that its board has approved the purchase of $1 million worth of Bitcoin as part of its fund management strategy. Additionally, the company will now accept cryptocurrency payments on CWSpirits.com, allowing customers to flexibly use digital currency to purchase alcoholic beverages.
Hut 8 plans to sell $500 million in stock: The company will primarily use the proceeds to acquire additional Bitcoin (BTC) and strengthen its reserves. In a statement released on Wednesday, Hut 8 reiterated its commitment to Bitcoin, stating that Bitcoin is the most important cryptocurrency. The company has designed an ATM program that allows it to generate funds through ordinary stock sales to support its Bitcoin acquisition strategy.
U.S. publicly traded company KULR Technology Group, Inc. (NYSE American: KULR) announced yesterday that its board has agreed to make Bitcoin a primary asset in its financial plan. KULR currently has over $12 million in cash on its balance sheet, and with any future cash surplus, KULR is committed to allocating 90% of its surplus cash to BTC. KULR's purchases of Bitcoin will be guided by market dynamics and expected cash flow needs. The company stated that it remains adaptable and can adjust its approach based on changing circumstances and strategic considerations. KULR is described as an energy management platform providing cutting-edge energy storage solutions for space, aerospace, and defense.
As traditional institutions continue to aggressively purchase BTC, many prominent figures are confident about its future development prospects.
Putin: No one can prohibit Bitcoin, everyone is trying to reduce costs and improve reliability.
Russian President Putin stated at the Russia Calling investment forum: 'Who can prohibit Bitcoin? No one can. Who can prohibit the use of other electronic payment methods? No one can either. Because these are new technologies. Regardless of how the dollar fares in the future, these tools will develop in one way or another because everyone is trying to reduce costs and improve reliability.'
Crypto trader Cobie: It is more reasonable for Bitcoin's market value to reach 5 to 10 times that of gold, as it has become rarer than gold, the interstellar digital gold.
Cryptocurrency trader Jordan Fish (pseudonym Cobie) posted on platform X stating: 'Bitcoin flipping gold is just a reminder for us to return to rational reality. The multiple it flips is the more interesting question. Perhaps 5 to 10 times is the fair valuation approaching this process.'
Additionally, it was added: 'To be honest, while gold will also face serious competition from Bitcoin competing assets, Bitcoin is essentially the interstellar digital gold. Therefore, as prophesied by the writing on the wall, as humanity becomes a multi-planet species, mineral rocks on Earth and gold investors may choose superior assets. Many other gold cases: perhaps some future intelligence can refine gold, or maybe future humans who conquer the stars will be able to mine infinite gold in space. In contrast, it seems unlikely that we will find any Bitcoin in space.'
CryptoQuant CEO: The Bitcoin bull market is starting, current data is similar to 2020.
CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju posted on X stating that the Bitcoin bull market is starting, and current data is similar to the market performance in 2020. Over the past few months, on-chain data has shown whales continuously accumulating Bitcoin, and while many were skeptical of this data at the time, the reasons for this accumulation now seem quite clear.
Further analysis states that after the halving, mining costs double, and prices need to rise to maintain miner profitability. Additionally, many traders are shorting Bitcoin, which may push the bull market forward through short squeezes. Historically, Bitcoin bull markets typically start in the fourth quarter.
Satoshi Act Fund co-founder: 10 states in the U.S. plan to introduce 'strategic Bitcoin reserve' legislation.
Satoshi Act Fund co-founder Dennis Porter stated that multiple states in the U.S. are preparing to propose sovereign Bitcoin reserve legislation. Porter is lobbying local policymakers to introduce BTC reserve legislation across 10 states and has disclosed this progress on X, emphasizing the efforts of the Satoshi Act Fund to pass Bitcoin-focused laws.
He stated: 'I can now officially confirm and announce that 10 states in the U.S. will introduce 'strategic Bitcoin reserve' legislation. We will win with Bitcoin and lead the world.' Porter added that passing laws in 10 states is a long way to go.
Deribit CEO: Options market bets on BTC having greater rebound potential, derivatives traders overwhelmingly bullish.
Deribit CEO Luuk Strijers pointed out that based on options market data, cryptocurrency derivatives traders appear overwhelmingly bullish, betting that Bitcoin has greater rebound potential.
With institutions purchasing BTC in large quantities, the price of BTC continues to set historical highs, catalyzing FOMO sentiment: Data analysis shows that the 30-day demand for BTC from retail investors has reached its highest level since 2020.
Matthew Sigel, head of digital asset research at VanEck, posted on X stating that when asked 'What would cause you to increase your Bitcoin allocation?':
49% of respondents are waiting for prices to drop before buying in;
46% of respondents want to see unknown 'regulatory developments';
24% of respondents want to see a U.S. strategic Bitcoin reserve;
9% of respondents cannot imagine purchasing.
Short-term possibility: Amidst soaring prices, be wary of corrections and set up trailing stops.
At the critical moment when BTC breaks through the important threshold of $100,000, although most investors may be reluctant to face this issue, caution must still be exercised regarding potential correction risks amidst the excitement.
In summary, the current market faces three main correction factors.
Reason for correction one:
The Fear and Greed Index remains at a high level.
The first factor is the current public sentiment frenzy, with the Fear and Greed Index remaining high.
Data shows that today's Fear and Greed Index is 84, remaining at extreme greed, and last week's level was also extreme greed. As the saying goes, 'Buy when no one is asking, sell when everyone is clamoring.' From the current sentiment data, while it is impossible to determine where the short-term BTC peak is, there is always the risk of a correction.
The panic index threshold is 0-100, including indicators: volatility (25%) + market trading volume (25%) + social media popularity (15%) + market surveys (15%) + Bitcoin's proportion in the overall market (10%) + Google trend analysis (10%).
Reason for correction two:
The window for cryptocurrency policy fulfillment exists.
The second factor is that the window for Trump’s policy fulfillment exists, and increased uncertainty may lead institutions to take profits and exit.
As Trump's term begins on January 20 of next year, about a month and a half from now, and given that cryptocurrency-related policies are not a priority after Trump officially takes office, investment bank TDCowen believes that while the regulatory environment may change as expected, it emphasizes that 'the Trump team's focus is on extending tax cuts and addressing tariffs and trade issues; cryptocurrency will not be their top priority.' Thus, the strength and timing of policy implementation remain to be discussed. Additionally, analysts believe that 'Trump was once a skeptic of cryptocurrency, but after digital asset companies invested heavily to promote their interests during the campaign, he changed his stance. Now there are still questions about the feasibility and timeline of what he promised.'
In summary, there is still nearly a two-month window before Trump officially takes office. If a large amount of capital chooses to take profits at high positions as BTC breaks through $100,000, avoiding risks and waiting to see Trump's first stance on the cryptocurrency industry upon taking office, this could be a 'bearish' factor for the short-term BTC price, leading to a significant potential correction.
For example: Meitu Inc. sold 31,000 Ethereum and 940 Bitcoin, cashing out approximately $180 million, of which about 80% of the funds will be used to pay special dividends.
Reason for correction three:
Continuously rising leverage
The third factor is the continued rise in current market leverage, which has objectively laid the groundwork for significant market fluctuations.
Coinglass data shows that the total open interest of Bitcoin futures contracts across the network has reached $64.7 billion, continuously setting historical highs; the nominal value of open interest in BTC options across the network is $36.8 billion, approaching historical highs.
Looking back at past trends, leverage is both a catalyst for bull markets and a trigger point for extreme market conditions. While predictions about market trends should not be 'carving a boat to find a sword,' risk management is always a key factor that cannot be ignored.
Regulatory aspects:
On January 20, 2015, Trump returned to the White House and strongly supported cryptocurrency, calling himself 'the first Bitcoin president.' He also attended several Bitcoin conferences and promised to make America the global cryptocurrency capital while relaxing more virtual asset tax incentives and introducing a U.S. strategic Bitcoin reserve.
In the new Senate, there are 19 supporting cryptocurrency and 12 opposing.
In the new House of Representatives, there are 268 supporting cryptocurrency and 122 opposing. This means that whether in legislation, personnel appointments, or financial support, Trump will receive stronger party support, while also being able to better promote the rapid development of cryptocurrency policy regulation.
On December 4, local U.S. time, elected President Trump announced that he has officially nominated cryptocurrency advocate and Patomak Partner CEO Paul Atkins to serve as chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
Key focus:
Microsoft will vote on its Bitcoin investment plan on December 10.
Federal Reserve interest rate resolution and Japan interest rate resolution.
