Stimulated by the positive news that "Bitcoin ETF officially entered the approval window period", Bitcoin continued to rise, and finally broke through the US$38,000 mark at 23:00 on the evening of the 9th, setting a record high since May 22, 2022.
It is understood that Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart wrote that Bitcoin ETF has officially entered the approval window period. From November 9 to November 17, the SEC can theoretically approve any of the 12 existing spot Bitcoin ETF applications during this period. Of course, they emphasized that this is only a possibility, and the SEC can also reject the application. It can be seen that the news is good but there is uncertainty. Then, Bitcoin quickly fell back by $2,500 to around $35,500, almost wiping out all the gains today. After the pin, it continued to exert force and has now stabilized above $36,500.
Surprisingly, Ethereum (ETH) experienced a 12% increase, breaking out of its "independent trend" and rising to around $2,130, just within reach of its year-to-date high.
In terms of news, ETH's strong performance is mainly affected by BlackRock - the disclosure document information shows that BlackRock registered the Ethereum Trust in Delaware, and the registered entity is called ISHARES ETHEREUM TRUST. Perhaps due to the stimulation of good news, or driven by the strong increase of "Big Pie", the long-dormant "Second Pie" finally began to rise.
However, shortly after ETH skyrocketed, the market suddenly took a sharp turn and plummeted. Compared with the decline of mainstream assets, altcoins experienced a sharp retracement and spike. TRB and other projects that led the rise a few days ago fell more sharply. SOL fell from $48 to $41 during the session, and Ordi also fell from $20 to $15 during the session. The drastic market shock caused high-leverage contract players who chased the rise and fall to lose their positions.
According to Coinglass data, as of 9:00 a.m. on November 10, the cryptocurrency market had a total of $493 million in liquidation in the past 24 hours, including $219 million in long orders and $274 million in short orders. By currency, BTC had a liquidation of about $167 million, accounting for the largest proportion, and ETH had a liquidation of about $81.9512 million.
However, when the market is facing a decline, ETH's "anti-fall" performance seems to be even better, and it can be said that it has been soaring. For this reason, today's ETH/BTC exchange rate rebounded quickly after falling to 0.051, and has now risen to 0.0558. If we look at it from a larger perspective, we can see that the ETH/BTC exchange rate has come out of the bottom, but whether it can "stand firm" and continue to rise is still worth watching.
The FOMO sentiment in the cryptocurrency market has reached a peak recently. The Greed Fear Index, which uses volatility, market trading volume, and social media popularity as references, has hit a new high since November 2021. Some people are optimistic that if we look at it from a "sword-seeking-by-the-boat" perspective, a historic bull market cycle is about to begin.
Although the market is still optimistic, some people have calmed down. Analysts at JPMorgan Chase said: "The rebound in cryptocurrencies seems to be overdone. Even if the Bitcoin spot ETF application is approved, it may only attract investors who invest in GBTC, Bitcoin futures ETFs and listed Bitcoin mining company stocks. Given that Bitcoin spot ETFs already exist in Canada and Europe but have hardly attracted investor interest, it is questionable whether the US Bitcoin spot ETF can really attract new funds."
Data shows that 20% of retail investors have already purchased cryptocurrencies, but 80% of wealth in the United States is controlled by financial advisors and institutions, who need an ETF to enter the cryptocurrency market. If those who are going to buy this ETF do not think it will be approved in the next two months, it means that it has not been priced in. Matt Hougan, chief investment officer of asset management company Bitwise, said that the real buyers of ETFs have not yet arrived, especially those financial advisors who manage considerable wealth in the United States.
Summarize
As market expectations for the approval of a Bitcoin ETF grow stronger, has a new bull market cycle begun? Where will Bitcoin go next after its sharp rise and fall? Can it hit the $40,000 mark? Is the ongoing decline a correction during the rise, or the end of the rising market? These questions are worth thinking about for investors.
In fact, controlling risks does not mean that the short-term rally will not continue, but it can be used to avoid sharp declines. If the ETF is implemented, the Bitcoin block reward halving is priced in advance and there is no subsequent narrative connection to support the entire market sentiment, the gap in between will bring huge uncertainty to the market trend.
